Fantasy Baseball: Aaron Judge injury puts Yankees in survival mode — which players will step up?
It hasn’t been a fun start for so many of fantasy baseball’s top picks this year. Consider some of the problems from players we drafted in the first couple of rounds back in March. Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet are hurt, Ronald Acuña Jr. only recently found his power stroke, Fernando Tatis Jr. is stuck on one homer. Cal Raleigh slumped, then got hurt. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a never-ending ground-ball machine. There are other examples.
And now we have an Aaron Judge injury to toss on the pile. Sometimes a fantasy baseball season feels like a fantasy football season.
The Judge news came down Thursday: he has a stress fracture in his ribs and will miss significant time. The Yankees say Judge will be reassessed in 4-6 weeks, and although they expect him to play again in 2026, we can’t take anything for granted with Judge for the rest of the season.
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Judge was hitting below expectation (.248), but his other stats were in line with expectations: 43 runs, 17 homers, 38 RBI, five steals. He ranks 21st in banked 5×5 value, which is fine from an early choice. It would be nice if our lottery picks dominated the world, but so long as they put down a foundational brick, the selection feels justified.
The New York offense with Judge has been decent. The Yankees rank fifth in runs, first in homers, second in walks, fourth in steals. Although New York’s .241 average ranks an ordinary 15th, they’re getting on base (.329 OBP, sixth) and hitting with power (.432, first).
All of those stats are quasi-irrelevant now, with Judge out of the mix. Judge missed the recently-completed Cleveland series, where the Yankees lost two of three and scored just 10 runs. The Yankees had championship dreams two months ago — now, they’re more in survival mode.
Let’s see what the New York lineup looks like moving forward, while Judge rehabs.
New York’s best hitter over the past month might surprise you. Paul Goldschmidt has a .313 average over the past 30 days, with five homers. He’s gone from a part-time player to a lineup staple, slotting in the top three for four straight games.
Goldy’s long-term value will rely on how he handles right-handers. He spent the early chunk of the year as a lefty crusher (.385/.484/.808, five homers in 52 at-bats) but he’s been a .197/.260/.324 stick against righties. It’s possible that full-time duty might help Goldschmidt get going in the platoon disadvantage, and sometimes we assign presumed Hall of Famers a more gradual aging curve. Still, Goldschmidt is 38, and he was barely above league average in OPS+ the last two years.
If that sounds like a mixed endorsement, it’s because it is. But Goldschmidt’s solidified role and new lineup real estate makes him worth considering in medium and deeper leagues. He’s currently trading at 9% in Yahoo, a number that’s likely to rise quickly.
Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger will need to be the New York stars in Judge’s absence. Rice has turned into fantasy’s best catcher-eligible, a snappy .300-46-17-44-2 line tied to regular playing time. Rice of course isn’t catching this year, a fantasy cheat code. Next year, he’ll be back to first base, only. Bellinger’s career makes linear sense if you put your hands over the 2021-2022 slump. He’s been a consistent .280/.342/.476 stick since, producing 100 runs, 27 home runs and 107 RBI per every 162 games played. And left-handed pitchers don’t bother him at all.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be able to fix that .238 average, but even if he doesn’t, category juice is bailing him out (seven homers, 15 steals). José Caballero has a better average and some category juice, too — and you can slot him at four different positions. Trent Grisham is the leadoff batter more often than not, a .331 OBP carrying more weight than his .212 average. He’s been unlucky with his batted-ball events, and his 46% roster tag is probably a little low. He has power and a dash of speed, too.
Did you catch Amed Rosario batting leadoff on Tuesday? The Yankees have used him as a short-side platoon guy, but maybe he’s earned some playing time against righties; he’s been an above-average hitter this year (114 OPS+). He probably couldn’t be any worse than Ryan McMahon (.608 OPS). If the Yankees commit to Rosario, I’d open my mind to a deep-league pickup.
If you want to talk yourself into Anthony Volpe, that’s your business. He’s running and walking since his return two weeks ago (five bags, nine walks), but he’s also batting .220 and slugging .340. He’ll probably hit in the bottom third most of the time.
Maybe others can heal up and help the story. Jasson Domínguez (shoulder) is ready for a rehab assignment, though he has an ordinary MLB profile through about a full season of action (.245/.323/.396). Giancarlo Stanton (calf) is taking batting practice but his return isn’t imminent. Stanton has averaged 108 games played over the past five seasons; you know what to expect here.
