Both sides arrive at Levi’s Stadium knowing that only a win will do — and with the knockout rounds tantalisingly close, this Group D decider is shaping up to be one of the most compelling clashes of the entire tournament…
Paraguay vs Australia kicks off at 19:00 local time (02:00 BST) on Thursday 25 June 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Both teams sit on three points in Group D, and the result here will almost certainly determine which side joins the United States in the last 16. It is live in the UK on ITV and ITVX.
Group D Standing
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What’s at Stake
Australia hold second place on goal difference over Paraguay, which means a draw sends them through while condemning Paraguay to an early exit. G. Alfaro’s side must win outright to advance with any certainty, making this as close to a must-win scenario as the group stage produces. A Paraguay victory combined with a goal-difference swing could even push them above Australia into second, so every goal will count — this is not a game where either bench can afford to plan for a point.
Verdict
Australia’s superior goal difference gives them the luxury of a draw, and T. Popovic’s side have already shown they can grind out a result here after beating Turkey 2-0 in Matchday 1. Back Australia to qualify from Group D at the best available price — the Socceroos have the positional discipline and the motivation to see this out, even if it comes down to a tense, low-scoring affair.
Paraguay vs Australia Match Preview
Paraguay are back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, a return that carries enormous emotional weight for a nation that has waited sixteen years for this moment. G. Alfaro’s side showed real grit in beating Turkey 1-0 on Matchday 2, but the 4-1 hammering by the United States in the opener leaves them with a goal-difference deficit that makes drawing insufficient. They need goals — and they need them without conceding.
Australia began their campaign with an impressive 2-0 win over Turkey before a 2-0 defeat to the United States on Matchday 2. T. Popovic’s team qualified through the AFC with a perfect record — four wins from four — and they bring a blend of experienced campaigners and emerging talent to San Francisco. Mathew Ryan and Mathew Leckie are among the veterans anchoring the squad, and the Socceroos have enough quality to manage a game from a position of relative safety.
The tactical question is whether Paraguay can unlock a disciplined Australian defence when they are under no pressure to attack. Julio Enciso and Miguel Almirón carry the creative burden for Paraguay, while Jackson Irvine’s engine in midfield has consistently been the platform from which Australia build. Whoever dominates the centre of the park is likely to control the game’s tempo — and with knockout qualification on the line, neither side will be reckless.
Team Form
Paraguay
- Turkey (A): Won 1-0 — World Cup 2026
- United States (A): Lost 1-4 — World Cup 2026
- Nicaragua (H): Won 4-0 — Friendly
- Morocco (N): Lost 1-2 — Friendly
- Greece (A): Won 1-0 — Friendly
Paraguay’s results in competitive football tell two very different stories. The disciplined 1-0 victory over Turkey demonstrates that G. Alfaro has built a side capable of keeping a clean sheet against organised opposition, but the 4-1 loss to the United States exposed defensive vulnerability at the highest level. Three wins in their last five across all competitions suggest a team in decent form overall — but they must be far more reliable at the back if they are to keep Australia at bay while also finding a goal.
Australia
- United States (A): Lost 0-2 — World Cup 2026
- Turkey (H): Won 2-0 — World Cup 2026
- Switzerland (N): Drew 1-1 — Friendly
- Mexico (N): Lost 0-1 — Friendly
- Curacao (H): Won 5-1 — FIFA Series
Australia’s competitive form across this tournament has been encouraging in parts. The clean-sheet victory over Turkey was commanding, and their AFC qualifying campaign was flawless — four wins from four including a win away in Saudi Arabia and a home victory over Japan. The defeat to the United States was against a formidable host nation, and T. Popovic will take confidence from the fact that his side kept their composure for long stretches of that game. They arrive here knowing a draw is enough, which suits a team comfortable playing on the counter.
Paraguay vs Australia Head to Head
These two nations have met five times, all in friendly fixtures, and none of those meetings have come at a World Cup. Australia have the better record in the series, winning twice, drawing twice, and losing none. The most recent meeting came in October 2010, a 1-0 home win for Australia. Before that, a 1-1 draw in October 2006 and a trio of matches in June 2000 — a 2-1 Australian win sandwiched between two goalless draws — complete the head-to-head picture.
Paraguay have never beaten Australia in five attempts, which is a notable footnote even if the sample size is small and all matches were non-competitive. Australia’s ability to keep Paraguay at arm’s length historically adds a small layer of confidence to the Socceroos’ case heading into this decisive group-stage encounter, though neither side will pay much attention to results from friendlies played over a decade ago.
Team News
Paraguay’s squad for this World Cup is built around a core of South American club football, with captain Gustavo Gómez providing experienced leadership in central defence. Midfielder Miguel Almirón, now 32, brings his creative instincts alongside younger options including Diego Gómez of Brighton and Hove Albion and Julio Enciso of Strasbourg. Antonio Sanabria leads the forward line, though Kaku and Álex Arce provide cover. Paraguay have no publicised suspension concerns heading into this fixture.
Australia’s squad blends AFC veterans with some younger names breaking through. Mathew Ryan is the established number one in goal, while Jackson Irvine captains the midfield and Mathew Leckie provides wide attacking threat. Nestory Irankunda, the 20-year-old Watford forward, has already opened his account at this World Cup alongside Connor Metcalfe. Australia have no publicised suspension issues for this match, and T. Popovic is expected to name a strong XI with progression in mind.
Predicted Lineups
Paraguay (4-2-3-1): Gatito Fernández; J.J. Cáceres, Gustavo Gómez (c), Fabián Balbuena, Júnior Alonso; Andrés Cubas, Braian Ojeda; Julio Enciso, Miguel Almirón, Ramón Sosa; Antonio Sanabria.
Australia (4-3-3): Mathew Ryan; Miloš Degenek, Harry Souttar, Cameron Burgess, Jordan Bos; Aiden O’Neill, Jackson Irvine (c), Connor Metcalfe; Mathew Leckie, Nestory Irankunda, Awer Mabil.
Predicted XI — squads to be confirmed.
Key Tactical Matchup
The battle in central midfield between Paraguay’s Miguel Almirón and Australia’s Jackson Irvine could define this game. Almirón, with 76 caps and 10 international goals, carries the creative responsibility for a Paraguay side that struggles to generate chances through other means. Irvine, equally industrious across his 82 caps and 14 international goals, has the physical presence and reading of the game to press high and disrupt Almirón’s influence. If Irvine and the Australian midfield can limit Paraguay’s transitions through the middle, T. Popovic’s side will be well placed to counter-attack and preserve their group-stage advantage without needing to over-commit forward.
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Australia to qualify from Group D is the headline call. The Socceroos sit second with three points and a superior goal difference to Paraguay. Even a draw puts them through, giving T. Popovic’s side two routes to the knockout rounds. Their AFC qualifying record — four wins from four, including results against Japan and Saudi Arabia — suggests a team capable of managing high-pressure games. The best available price reflects value given how much of the equation already favours them.
Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6 is the goals market pick. Five of Paraguay’s last six qualifying matches produced two goals or fewer. Australia’s last four competitive matches have also been tight affairs, and with both sides aware of the positional stakes, this feels like a game that will be cagey rather than open. Paraguay need to score but will be cautious about overcommitting and conceding, while Australia have little reason to chase the game from the front.
Julio Enciso to score anytime is worth consideration as a scorer market pick. The Strasbourg forward has four international goals in his last run of appearances and carries a penalty-taking responsibility for Paraguay. With G. Alfaro’s side needing to win, Enciso is likely to be central to their attacking intent from an advanced position, giving him the opportunity to get on the score sheet.
Draw at half-time has appeal as an optional fourth angle. Both teams have a tendency to start games cautiously in high-stakes settings — Australia’s qualifying record included close, measured wins, while Paraguay’s two World Cup games have both been tight for long stretches. A goalless or level first half, with the drama coming in the second, feels like the natural shape of this fixture.
Paraguay vs Australia Odds
The best available prices across leading operators put Paraguay as narrow favourites at 2/1, with Australia slightly longer at 3/1, and the draw priced at 5/4 — reflecting just how closely matched these sides are on points heading into the final matchday.
How to Watch and How to Bet
How to Watch
Paraguay vs Australia is live in the UK on ITV and available to stream free via ITVX. Kick-off is at 02:00 BST on Thursday 26 June 2026, with the match taking place at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, in the San Francisco Bay Area. In Australia, the match is available on SBS and Optus Sport.
How to Bet
New to betting on the World Cup 2026? Here is a straightforward eight-step guide to placing a wager on this match.
- Choose a licensed and regulated sportsbook available in your country.
- Register your account with your personal details and verify your identity.
- Deposit funds using a payment method available to you — debit card, e-wallet, or bank transfer.
- Search for Paraguay vs Australia in the World Cup 2026 or Group D section.
- Browse markets — match result, both teams to score, total goals, first goalscorer, and correct score are the most commonly offered.
- Select your preferred market and add your selection to your bet slip.
- Enter your stake and confirm the odds before submitting.
- Track your bet live on matchday and withdraw winnings according to the operator’s standard processing times.
Responsible Gambling
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