Which Mountain West Teams Should, Could and Probably Won’t Compete in a Bowl Game in 2026?
The new athletic year has arrived, and with that the new-look Mountain West will look to rebuild its image back to what it was for the last couple of years, starting with football in the fall. Every school has expectations and goals both internally and externally it will strive to hit. One of those is making and/or winning a bowl game, the litmus test to see whether your school is improving on the national stage, managing to stay relevant or having a down year depending on the outcome.
Every team has their own version of success, especially when considering their chances at a bowl game. Here’s where the programs of the Mountain West stand in regards to their bowl game chances this year.
Expected to Make a Bowl Game
UNLV
Putting a team that made the conference championship last year in the bowl game expected category makes a lot of sense, and the path to a bowl game this year should be a cake walk despite setbacks. They did round up a pretty good recruiting/transfer class, placing 68 in the nation with 47 commits (45 being three star athletes according to 247sports), which includes former five star quarterback from Auburn Jackson Arnold. Going through a quick rebuild was necessary after losing players like quarterback Anthony Colandrea (Kentucky) and wide receiver Troy Omeire (New Mexico), which has definitely put them in the driver’s seat when it comes to bowl game potential. The front half of the season will be the test to see if UNLV can contend nationally, but if the program can walk away at least 2-4 (which is very doable), we should see them in a bowl game in 2026
Hawaii
Hawaii finally saw the fruits of its labor in 2025, finishing with a 9-4 record which included a 35-31 comeback win in the Hawaii Bowl against the Cal Golden Bears. And one of the newest full-time members to the conference look to continue their growth, something that should be doable for the Rainbow Warriors. Their 2026 class is definitely not as strong as others, finishing 124 in the nation with 37 commits, which does not look great for a program that only retained 51 percent of its total snaps from last year according to puntandrally.com). However, if they can survive starting the year on the road against Stanford and at home versus UNLV, the Rainbow Warriors should be able to win the six games required for eligibility in just their conference games. All eyes should be on Hawaii as the dark horse favorite for the Mountain West title this year.
New Mexico
After being snubbed out of the conference championship game last year, the Lobos are looking to prove why that was the case by also continuing their revival into 2026. Second year head coach Jason Eck has done wonders in Albuquerque, posting a 9-4 record in 2025 (the program’s best since 1982), and continued to bolster the ranks by piecing together the 90 best recruiting class in the nation (third best in the conference). Highlighted by both current and former conference rival transfers like the aforementioned Omeire and former Boise State linebacker Clay Martineau, the Lobos will have a core of talent both on the field and on the sidelines this year, which should prove well for them heading into a season where they are tied at 29 for the easiest schedule in the nation according to Sports Illustrated.
North Dakota State
Now that the NCAA played nice and gave NDSU and Sac State eligibility to play in the postseason, everyone should expect the Bison to secure a spot in a bowl game this year. The winners’ of 10 of the last 15 FCS championships are coming into the FBS level of play with a ton of momentum. Recruiting was definitely not the high point, as they finished 129 with 27 commits (20 three stars). However, their first season in the Mountain West should be a good adjustment period rather than a showcase, as NDSU will face the second easiest schedule in the nation according to Sports Illustrated. With several ‘cupcake’ games on their 2026 schedule and the high vibes from being granted permission to compete past November, it should be a realistic expectation for the Bison to make some noise this early into the current chapter of their history.
Could Go Bowling
Air Force
The Falcons have been grounded as of late, only winning nine games out of 24 in the past two years, unfamiliar territory for the military academy that was one of the most consistently successful programs in the Mountain West. It has not been fun for Air Force, which is always one step behind in terms of recruiting because of their enrollment requirements. However, there is hope for the founding member of the Mountain West. ESPN has the Falcons winning an average of 7.8 games in 2026 in their simulations, which is not far off from where many in the mid-major world have them. Some games, like those against NDSU, UNLV and the two games against the other military schools might pose some problems, and you never know when an upset will occur, hence why they are in this category. But if they prove the simulations right and are able to win all of the close games, Air Force will be flying high once again.
Wyoming
In similar fashion to Air Force, the Cowboys have not had a great time over the last couple of seasons. A great 2023 campaign has been followed up with just seven wins in two years, which is the second lowest figure, only beating Nevada’s win total in the same span. With a class of recruits and transfers that puts them ranked 117 in the nation, it does seem like this year could be yet another test. Despite this, Wyoming does have an easier schedule this year, as it is one of the easiest schedules in the conference this year, with some sites saying it’s the second easiest while others are placing them around the four or five spots. ESPN has the Cowboys as the final team to get six wins this year, estimating their final record to be around 6-6. They do have the level of firepower needed to complete that estimation, but with the possibility of being upset like they were last year, they will stay in the questionable section of bowl teams.
San Jose State
Last year was a tough time for San Jose State, who was projected to finish third in the conference behind a strong offense but wound up tying with Nevada and Wyoming for the second-worst conference record (2-6) and the former for the second worst overall record (3-9). The 2026 class isn’t the greatest nationally either, placing 127 in the nation with 36 commits. However, San Jose State head coach Ken Niumatalolo did well in bolstering positions that desperately needed some support, such as the offensive and defensive lines and wide receiver core after several departures. Quarterback questions and other items pile up on a rough schedule with not many easy games, so there will need to be a few upsets in order for the Spartans to get back to a bowl game. It’s easier said than done, but it is possible if they play their cards right.
Probably Won’t Make a Bowl Game
Nevada
The Wolf Pack have consistently been on the bottom of the barrel over the last four seasons, a trend that has spanned two separate head coaches. And while they have definitely improved their personnel and overall talent pool, 2026 will still be an uphill battle for a bowl game. Keeping players like all-Mountain West defensive edge Dylan Labarbera and offensive lineman Jack Foster were huge moves, especially when adding players like former UCLA quarterback Luke Duncan to give Carter Jones some competition and linebackers Poasa Utu (Oklahoma State) and Jeremy Naborne-Owens (Colorado State) to reload a depleted core. However, Nevada does play all four of the conference title favorites, a tough road game against UCLA and two Conference USA teams that beat them last year, making the push easier said than done.
Northern Illinois University
One of two newcomers in this section of the list, NIU has had a mixed bag of performances over the last couple of years, sporting a 3-9 record last season after producing back-to-back winning records right before. That also includes their historic upset against Notre Dame in 2024. The fame will most likely shrink a bit more this season due to their schedule, which features two power four schools in the Big Ten’s Iowa and Big 12’s Arizona, as well as three of the four conference title favorites and hungry mid-tier conference foes that should prove to be difficult. Northern Illinois did have a good 2026 class, ranking 87 in the nation (second in conference), so if they can get the transfers gelled in and develop the freshman class well, NIU could shock a lot of college football fans.
UTEP
UTEP is in a very similar situation to NIU, but also in a deeper hole than the Huskies. Finishing last in Conference USA with a 2-10 overall record (1-7 in conference play), the Miners head into 2026 with the hardest schedule in the Mountain West. Playing Oklahoma to start the year and Michigan two weeks later, UTEP will also face three of the four favorites (all but UNLV, two on the road) and basically the full list of possible bowl game teams. But again, the Miners did a great job in recruiting, finishing with 52 commits at 94 in the nation, fourth in the conference. Impactful transfers like UCF quarterback E.J. Colson and Northern Colorado Carver Cheeks should help the push, but with the dice stacked against the program, UTEP will most likely be on the outside looking in after year one in the Mountain West.
Let us know which teams you think are bowl game contenders, the potential dark horses and who will be watching their rivals play in December in the comments below!
