It is no secret that the Colts brass and staff are entering a make or break season. You can only ramp up the sense of urgency so much or so often? It has been pointed out that the first five games on the schedule come with some challenges. The Colts play host to the Ravens and Texans, go to Kansas City and Pittsburgh, and have a neutral site game with the Commanders. The schedule appears to ease up a bit after that, but the truth is that we are only able to guess how teams will look next year, based largely on past performance.
In my opinion, if you are not over .500 at 3 – 2 or better after the first five games, you had better be looking for answers. Simply hoping to see your record get better while facing teams that are perceived to be weaker, can’t be the approach for a team that will only stay in tact with one result. So, in a year where winning a division and advancing in the playoffs is a must, it shouldn’t matter if you play the five best teams in the league through week 5, you need to show that you can beat them.
The Colts off-season moves indicate that the offense did not need an upgrade. They basically did what they could do to retain a squad that looked very good when being piloted by a healthy Daniel Jones. The turnover was minimal with Pittman being the only starter lost, unless you count B. Smith, who’s RT spot appeared to be replaced by Travis. I wont try to minimize the loss of Pittman as he was well above average for the Colts, but most teams would be happy with this amount of turnover on any of their units.
The defense is a different story. Players leaving included Paye, Ebukam, Franklin, Cross, Moore and potentially/probably Lewis and Pratt. That is five starters and a couple guys who got plenty of snaps in rotation, while they were healthy. Now you are looking at a unit that is losing half of it’s players. This was necessary for a defense that was bottom third in points and yards allowed.
Most point to the players that will replace them as sideways additions. Key and Clemens to fill the role of Paye and Ebukam. Woodson will replace Gallimore, which should be an upgrade. Davis-Gaither and rookie Allen should replace Franklin and Pratt. If they are better in coverage, they will help the cause. We did add some depth in the defensive backfield with Owens, Thomas, and Taylor-Britt, along with 3rd round pick Haulcy, but the biggest question mark might be whether or not Walley is up to replacing Kenny Moore. There are “if’s”, but that backfield could be special.
The only new piece that could still change the dynamic, is if they decide to add a proven pass rusher. I just don’t know how good the upgrades are at this point? Either way, I would guess that Ballard and Steichen expect Lou to put a unit out there that becomes more of a hurdle than a speedbump. That same pairing went a little desperate and signed Rivers last year, so if they see the D as a weakness after week 5, there are good odds that they take another swing, and not with a player.
The Colts have a well respected “In the wings” coach in Chris Hewitt. Noah Compton on SI wrote three weeks ago that Hewitt was set to attend an accelerator program as one of 16 participants. It is a program that is geared for future head coaches and senior level executives. https://www.si.com/nfl/colts/onsi/colts-chris-hewitt-set-to-take-major-step-toward-head-coach-role
If Carlie felt that he would be a candidate for head coach after the dust settles next year, wouldn’t putting him in charge of the defense for more than half a season allow you to see how his players respond to him? Just because he is a current Colt, would not mean that he would want continuity with the current coaches. He had 14 seasons in Baltimore and would likely bring more of those principles than anything he would be taking from Lou and company.
It’s just a thought and/or a question. I am not expecting a rough start and even wrote that I thought the early stretch offered an opportunity to show our strength. If Jones is healthy and Lou has had enough time to get newcomers from free agency and the draft on the same page, I think we will be being talked about the same way we were after five weeks last year. We know that the leash is short and I am actively wondering just how shot it might be?
