The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2026 season as the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl. Based on recent history, that distinction doesn’t mean much.
Yahoo Sports’ Frank Schwab looked at how preseason Super Bowl favorites have fared since 1995, and the results are striking. Of the past 31 preseason favorites, only four went on to win the championship — a hit rate of just 12.9 percent.
According to Covers.com data cited by Schwab, the four teams that actually converted preseason favorite status into a title were the 2006 Indianapolis Colts, 2016 New England Patriots, 2018 New England Patriots and 2023 Kansas City Chiefs. That’s just four times in 20 seasons.
If anyone other than Los Angeles wins Super Bowl LXI, it would make six of the last seven champions a double-digit longshot at the start of the year.
Last year, for instance, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles were tied as preseason Super Bowl favorites heading into the regular season. None reached their respective conference title games, with the Ravens not even making the playoffs.
This reality is the perfect encapsulation of how nothing is predetermined in the NFL. The Bills and Eagles couldn’t coalesce as a team to deliver a ring, while the Ravens’ injuries piled up to the point of keeping them out of the postseason.
Either scenario could unfold for the Rams, even after the team brought back reigning MVP Matthew Stafford and added star defensive players like Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie.
The Rams have what it takes to deliver a championship to L.A. for the second time since 2021, but being a preseason favorite doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to make it back to SoFi Stadium for a chance at a Super Bowl.
This article originally appeared on Niners Wire: History isn’t on the Rams’ side as heavy Super Bowl favorites
