Old friend, new face.
That’s Royal Birkdale heading into this 126th Open Championship, which heads to the Southport links, located about an hour north of Liverpool, for the first time since Jordan Spieth’s swashbuckling victory in 2017.
Changes have been made to all 18 holes – some minor, some extreme. The fifth, 14th and 15th holes are completely redesigned with the site of the old par-3 14th turning into a short-game practice area. The par-3 seventh was shortened and given a new green, while the closing stretch, Nos. 16-17, will look foreign with new tees, bunkers and green shapes.
Despite the new look, the yardage only increased 67 yards, to 7,223 yards, and the par remained at 70. The expectation is that Birkdale provided a similar test, too, requiring far less length than recent venues such as Royal Portrush and St. Andrews and playing more like accuracy-demanded venues such as Royal Troon and Royal Liverpool. As far as similar PGA Tour courses, look at players who have performed well at Sea Island’s Seaside Course, Harbour Town and Colonial.
Finding fairways and scrambling will be huge this week, though the former might be easier considering the forecast, which calls for mild to moderate wind and warm temperatures. That said, likely firmer greens will dial up the importance of the latter.
While recent form is a crucial factor as well, it’s worth noting how dissimilar last week’s Scottish Open venue, Renaissance Club, is. Out of 121 PGA Tour courses in Data Golf’s database, Renaissance ranks 105th when compared to Birkdale. Sorry, Tom Kim – though, as you’ll see soon, I’m still high on Sunday’s winner.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the reigning Open winner, picking off his third grand-slam leg last summer at Portrush, and he’s had an extra couple days in Southport thanks to a missed cut in North Berwick.
How unconcerned am I with Scheffler’s first MC since 2022? Check out these rankings, where Scheffler is No. 1 out of 156 players:
Nos. 1-10
1. Scottie Scheffler: A missed cut at the Scottish gave the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year some extra practice around Birkdale. The approach play has been noticeably improved in recent starts, and the lack of adverse weather will allow that elite ball-striking to shine for the clear favorite.
2. Matt Fitzpatrick: Not only is he in top form after contending at the Scottish, but he’s a massive course fit with his chipping and ability to thread it around trouble.
3. Tommy Fleetwood: Returns home to Birkdale, where he was T-27 in 2017. He has five Open showings of T-16 or better since then, so he’ll again be a factor as one of the best in the world tee to green.
4. Rory McIlroy: Returns to Birkdale after T-4 in 2017 and three top-7s in his last four Open starts. This isn’t the best rota stop for him, but he’ll likely lean on the driver a bunch – that club’s been especially lethal of late – when many will opt to lay back at times.
5. Viktor Hovland: He’s in a bit of an Open funk (MC, T-63) and has missed two straight major cuts, but he’s driving it straighter and top 10 in strokes gained tee to green over the past month.
6. Alex Fitzpatrick: Throwing out the MC at Scottish because he’s easily been a top-10 tee-to-green player on Tour right now and was T-17 at the 2023 Open down the road at Hoylake.
7. Jon Rahm: Showed some fight battling back after a poor start at the Scottish, and while the driving numbers were better this past week, he still didn’t hit many fairways, which will be more of a problem at Birkdale than Renaissance. Coming off a MC at U.S. Open, he’ll be pressing to close the major calendar with a strong performance.
8. Xander Schauffele: Early exit at Scottish and doesn’t have a top-10 since the PGA as he’s battled a cold putter. Still, he has a win and four straight T-17s at The Open and was T-20 here in 2017.
9. Tom Kim: Guessing we’ll see the version of Tom Kim that was T-2 at Liverpool, not the guy who MC’d each of last two Opens. He was high in the model before the Scottish victory, too. Even better that he looked way better off the tee than he had over the past month.
10. Collin Morikawa: The short game has been concerning, but otherwise he’s been trending. Major tests that de-emphasize length are right up his alley, and he’s already got one of these jugs.
Nos. 11-20
11. Tyrrell Hatton: Owns a few top-20s in his last five Opens, but Birkdale should fit him the best. He’s a top-5 putter in the world in recent weeks and still has some momentum from last month’s LIV win and T-7 at the U.S. Open.
12. Aaron Rai: Surprisingly has been pretty poor in his Open career with nothing better than T-19 in four tries. But with a major win now under his belt, one of the world’s most accurate players should feast in benign conditions.
13. Eugenio Chacarra: Has cooled a bit since his back-to-back DP World Tour wins last month, but he’s among the best total drivers in the world. If he can figure out the short game, he will contend.
14. J.J. Spaun: He disappointed at Shinnecock despite popping in my model, but surely he can’t repeat such a performance so quickly. The short game has been good enough, and his ball-striking will shine around a place where you can’t consistently bomb and gouge it.
15. Sam Burns: The next step in Burns’ major progression – crack the top-30 at The Open, which he’s never done. That could change this week as he’s been top 5 tee to green this past month in addition to being one of the best putters in the world.
16. Justin Rose: Only two years removed from his T-2 at Troon and enters the week top 20 tee to green over the past month.
17. Wyndham Clark: His T-4 last year at Portrush came on a different test, though it’s hard to ignore form – and no one has been better in the last couple months than the U.S. Open champ. The key will be off the tee for Clark.
18. Brian Harman: Has just one top-10 in majors since his 2023 Open win, though that came at last year’s Open. He’s probably not adding a second jug, but he’ll find you fairways and comfortably make you a cut – and likely better.
19. Justin Thomas: He’s been the Tour’s best around the greens of late and had strung together seven straight top-25s before the Scottish, but I just can’t rely on him for much more than that considering, well, he has just one top-30 in nine previous Open starts.
20. Russell Henley: Riding a streak of two straight top-10s in Opens and a good course fit here, though he’s outside the top 70 tee to green in the last month.
Nos. 21-30
21. Shane Lowry: Mixed bag since his 2019 Open triumph and concerning with the putter of late. Add in an MC at Scottish and Lowry will hope his iron play can carry him.
22. Patrick Cantlay: He’s missed four of his last six major cuts, so even if the model is high-ish on him, the record and chipping are too much of concerns for me.
23. Kurt Kitayama: Will refuse to ignore a guy who is around the top 10 tee to green right now, even if he’s never cracked the top 40 at an Open. He’s made each of the first three major cuts this year.
24. Si Woo Kim: In his last seven Opens, he has just one top-40 finish. His top-10 approach play probably won’t be enough to buck that trend, unless he chips and putts it like he did this past week.
25. Ben Griffin: Has been very reliable in majors aside from really contending – four top-17s in last six – but has missed weekends in each of three previous Opens. The course fit and short game, though, are positives.
26. Ludvig Åberg: Has posted top-25s in four straight majors, but MC’d at the Scottish and ranks outside the top 50 tee to green in the last month.
27. John Parry: The Englishman was T-16 at last year’s Open and T-11 at last month’s U.S. Open. A great short game and not being reliant on distance are pluses, too.
28. Tom McKibbin: Has yet to pop in young Open career, though he’s top 20 off the tee and around the greens.
29. Patrick Reed: The model hated him, mainly because of his MC at the U.S. Open and poor stretch prior to the Scottish. But he’s still the best chipper on the planet and the iron play was much improved last week. It’s worth him staying in my top 30.
30. Matthew Jordan: Two top-10s in last three Open starts and a great chipper make him my favorite for low DPWT regular. I just wish his recent results were better.
Nos. 31-40
31. Joaquin Niemann: His best showing at The Open is T-53, so even with the third best approach numbers in the past month and a strong rally over the final 54 holes at Shinnecock, temper your expectations slightly.
32. Ryan Gerard: There’s always an Open newbie who pops. Gerard seems like one of the better bets considering how balanced he’s looked of late.
33. Robert MacIntyre: This isn’t the best Open test for him – his best showings have come on courses like Portrush – but he’s looked good enough in recent starts that if he finds fairways, he can flirt with a top-20.
34. Keegan Bradley: His T-30 last year at Portrush ended a streak of five straight MCs at Opens. Elite tee to green, including around the greens. Maybe the kinder weather will help.
35. Hennie Du Plessis: Has been the best iron player on the DPWT in recent weeks and was among the best around the greens at the Scottish. Another decent bet for top debutant.
36. Chris Gotterup: Birkdale doesn’t allow you to spray it like Renaissance, so I’m pumping the breaks a bit on the red-hot Gotterup, even if he was solo third in his Open debut last year.
37. Corey Conners: Sounding the alarm after MC in Canada was premature. He’s been T-28 or better in four of last five Opens and did the same at last month’s U.S. Open (T-23).
38. Bryson DeChambeau: Little chance he misses a fourth major cut this year, but it’s also hard to see him contending. He’s remained elite off the tee and should be able to take advantage of length considering he’s been fairly straight, too. The iron play and short game must improve, though.
39. Jordan Spieth: The model says no, but I can’t help myself. His last top-10 anywhere was at the Memorial … last summer. But he’s also not finished worse than T-40 in the past decade’s worth of Opens, including his win here in 2017. There will be some extra pressure in that regard, but I think Spieth can at least keep his streak alive.
40. Akshay Bhatia: Nothing stands out statistically, good or bad, though you’d think he’d have some confidence after a T-17 at the U.S. Open, his best major finish in two years.
Nos. 41-50
41. Eric Cole: Has cooled in recent starts, and the ball-striking looked poor at Renaissance, but Cole’s runner-up at Colonial earlier this summer and T-31 at Troon two years ago stand out.
42. J.T. Poston: Has missed three of four Open cuts, but his win at Memorial and subsequent T-4 at Shinnecock prove he’s taken a major step.
43. Jordan Smith: Seemed to find something ball-striking-wise at Scottish, so combine that with a crazy good short game and he should make his fourth Open cut in five tries.
44. Brooks Koepka: It’s tough to gauge Koepka solely based on the stats because he’s been hurt, but I like this course fit for him, and I’m willing to bet whatever he found in his swing last week will look even better at Birkdale. It’ll just be up to the putter if Koepka is going to make the cut or not.
45. Kristoffer Reitan: He has the game to build off last year’s T-30 at Portrush, but his short game has been putting a lot of pressure on his ball-striking in recent weeks.
46. Bud Cauley: Beat just two guys at Scottish but otherwise had been trending with a breakthrough win at the RBC Canadian Open.
47. Kota Kaneko: He won on the DPWT a few weeks ago and had been flushing the ball before the Scottish. Less wind this week should help him bounce back.
48. Jackson Suber: Posted top-6s in Canada and at the Deere, drives it well, and won’t make many rookie mistakes.
49. Rickie Fowler: One of the best in the field over the course of his Open career
50. Cameron Young: Feel obligated to keep him in the top 50, but he’s gone T-31, MC in his last two Opens, is barely top 40 in strokes gained tee to green in the last month, and he’s not cracked the top 40 on a leaderboard either since Truist. I worry all that tape on his arm indicates a bigger issue.
Nos. 51-60
Sepp Straka
Min Woo Lee
Rasmus Hojgaard
Keita Nakajima
Peter Uihlein
Michael Thorbjornsen
Antoine Rozner
Maverick McNealy
Jason Day
Victor Perez
Nos. 61-70
Harris English
Sungjae Im
Hideki Matsuyama
Bernd Wiesberger
Daniel Berger
Adam Scott
Sahith Theegala
Martin Couvra
Ryan Fox
Cameron Smith
Nos. 71-80
Gary Woodland
Haotong Li
Laurie Canter
Jacob Bridgeman
Max Homa
Harry Hall
Andrew Novak
Sami Valimaki
Alex Noren
Andy Sullivan
Nos. 81-90
Francesco Laporta
Casey Jarvis
Kazuma Kobori
Adrien Saddier
Frederic Lacroix
David Puig
Jesper Svensson
Scott Vincent
Keith Mitchell
Michael Kim
Nos. 91-100
Matthew Southgate
Jayden Schaper
Thomas Detry
Matt Wallace
a-Stuart Grehan
Travis Smyth
Angel Ayora
Nicolas Echavarria
Billy Horschel
Padraig Harrington
Nos. 101-110
Kazuki Higa
Michael Hollick
Ryo Hisatsune
Sam Stevens
Pierceson Coody
a-Tim Wiedemeyer
Johnny Keefer
Ren Yonezawa
Daniel Hillier
Nick Taylor
Nos. 111-120
Stewart Cink
Max Greyserman
Michael Brennan
Lucas Herbert
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
Daniel Brown
Matt McCarty
Nicolai Hojgaard
Caleb Surratt
Alex Smalley
Nos. 121-130
Jake Knapp
Josele Ballester
Shaun Norris
Joakin Lagergren
Naoyuki Kataoka
a-Lev Grinberg
Jack McDonald
Francisco Molinari
James Nicholas
a-Fifa Laopakdee
Nos. 131-140
a-Mason Howell
Dan Bradbury
Louis Oosthuizen
Baard Skogen
Sam Bairstow
Tiger Christensen
Henrik Stenson
Elvis Smylie
MJ Daffue
Matthew Baldwin
Nos. 141-150
Tom Sloman
Alistair Docherty
Austen Truslow
Marcus Plunkett
Ryutaro Nagano
Cameron John
Jeongwoo Ham
Jiho Yang
Darren Clarke
a-Mateo Pulcini
Nos. 151-156
a-Alejandro de Castro Piera
a-Nevill Ruiter
a-Jack Buchanan
a-David Howard
David Duval
TBD (Last Chance Qualifier)
