Hello from somewhere north of Stockholm where I’ve been jumping into my texts and emails the past day during connecting trains and such to configure some final fine tuning for Mock Draft 2.0 from The Sporting Tribune, roughly 24 hours before the first selection.
Time to write hasn’t come at a luxury, so sorry for the month-plus gap between Mock 1.0 and Mock 2.0, and that it comes just a day ahead of the draft itself.
While some of the waters have cleared, it’s still pretty muddy at the top and throughout the first round.
Most players who will have their name called in the first 50-100 picks have already had their parties express their bonus demands, and the real wheeling and dealing started right after the MLB Draft Combine where most (not all, or close to it) turned in their medicals and there has been some financial maneuvering on all fronts to turn the draft into a more “open market” to some degree.
Add in finances with peak data, performance across all forms of amateur ball, age relevance, development windows, makeup, variance and private workout data; and suddenly, everyone has an internal model to lean on. While you can never say it’s an end all item, models have taken over the draft heavier than in-house opinions which means some players have made serious leaps and bounds no matter what the previous feeling or connection was from club-player-agent.
I’ll do my best to avoid smoke-and-mirrors, but one of the more common terms that came up regarding the first round via text was “chaos”.
Let’s hope this thing doesn’t stink like Surströmming (seriously guys, if you know what it is, it’s not bad; it’s just not good).
Just again for clarity, this mock is not a self-reflection of personal rankings but a gathering of sourced information across the industry to report what is believed to occur on July 11. For talent separators from these same sources, you can check out the introduction of TST’s Mock Draft 1.0 by clicking here.
I’ll see you all tomorrow for draft day and potentially Mock Draft 3.0 as a names only mock and will have coverage from somewhere over the Atlantic at a cruising altitude of 35,000 feet… hopefully. So, on that note, please, Finnair, have good Wi-Fi.
Again, we’ll run it 40 picks deep.
1. Chicago White Sox: Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
This isn’t as simple as a coin flip; this feels like a two-man race between Cholowsky and Grady Emerson that will land on bonus demands.
While the bonus won’t land as an eight-digit figure, it will be a record-setter north of $9.3 million and will have to be more than whatever the teams promptly after (particularly, Tampa Bay and San Francisco) will make as a table-offer. You may have to assume this will be $9.5-$9.75 million signing bonus and either will receive a similar figure at picks 2, 3 or 4 (Vahn Lackey probably goes $9.3M+ too).
The demands aren’t the only thing holding some confidence in one player or the other as there could be a split in the room, which would include Lackey, though you can sideline him for most of this. Half the room seems to prefer Emerson on a talent and upside scale, while others see Cholowsky as a safer bet to become a solid player of potential franchise-altering value if he hits his peaks, and also fits some competitive window items.
This pick could come down to how much independence Mike Shirley will be granted in the war room, and most expect he will have the ultimate say. I noted in the last mock how much both Shirley and GM Chris Getz were involved with the interest in Cholowsky as a prep and that ownership will at least express a fair opinion here.
Lackey had some traction here a month ago, even to a point where some said he might be the favorite internally, but immediate feedback came across loudly that Chicago will not be taking a catcher this high even if there is favorable opinion; which to that, I shrugged, but when something is said multiple times, you have to listen.
Even with that, I don’t think you rule out Lackey, or Jacob Lombard, or even Jackson Flora for that matter, but you lean to the two-horse race.
Generalizing percentages at the top again, as per usual. It’s tight to 50/50 here. Cholowsky or Emerson 96.0%, Lackey 3.0%, Field <1.0%.
2. Tampa Bay Rays: Grady Emerson, SS, Fort Worth Christian HS (Tex.)
Continuing to play it chalk with the only real form of confidence is that Emerson, Cholowsky and Lackey will go in the first three-to-five picks and everything else will be erratic.
I think the model may be doing some needle moving here as Cholowsky seems to have slipped behind Emerson (and maybe Lackey too) in terms of preference; and a trio of down-the-board names keep floating up here between Flora, Drew Burress and Tyler Bell. Bell’s name has been long attached and rumored here, and not solely because of past experience (Tampa popped him 66th overall in 2024), but because he may be the top model-driven talent for most clubs and he will go higher than his previously expected 10-20 range.
Just another reminder that Tampa created a net gain of around $1.8 million with some competitive balance flip-flop trades and can be quite creative throughout the process, which may throw a wrench into the top five.
3. Minnesota Twins: Vahn Lackey, C, Georgia Tech
This is the first big rumored spot for a pitcher and Flora has carried a lot of traction all spring with Minnesota, but I don’t think they’d pass on Lackey or Emerson to land the first arm.
If I had to venture a guess to the Twins big board, I think it would go Emerson, Lackey, Flora, Cholowsky; knowing they will get one, and if the draft itself unfolded with that group going in 1-2-3-4 succession, I don’t think I’d be overly surprised.
4. San Francisco Giants: Eric Booth Jr., OF, Oak Grove HS (Miss.)
There’s been a lot of attention this pick and much more common belief that Buster Posey and gang really could swing, or have swung, Cholowsky down to four with a notable enough table offer. The reality is that they still have to get him past three other clubs who have interest.
If you want the longer winded version of probability and how it could happen, read Mock 2.0, but for simplicity’s sake; it may only take Emerson going first and Tampa going under slot with Bell or Burress for this to happen. Percentage chance of it actually happening? I don’t know. Throw it in around 25%, maybe? They have the finances to do something wild and create some havoc that could just come by natural order.
The newer and louder smoke is that Emerson was their real target to swing down to four with a wild bonus, but he isn’t getting past the first three clubs.
They like the other two top prep bats, and I think they’d prefer Eric Booth Jr. over Lombard, but I’m not overly confident in that. Somewhat similar to the Max Clark and Walker Jenkins flip-flop a few years ago.
I still wouldn’t rule out Flora here, and I think they’d pass on Lackey if he is the only available of the top trio.
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Jackson Flora, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara
If beggars are choosers, Lackey could very easily go here and if I’m reading the tea leaves right, they might financially kick him here. They have the biggest tab at the bar and can do all kinds of things with it, including kicking their preferred target down a few picks. I still don’t believe firmly that Lackey gets past Minnesota either way, but if he does, I think this is an easy bet.
The Pirates have long been linked to both Booth and Flora, and I think they’d prefer Flora if both are available. This could be a sleeper spot for Bell or Burress. I’m not as sold they’d take Lombard.
6. Kansas City Royals: Jacob Lombard, SS, Gulliver Prep HS (Fla.)
No team has had more rumors floating around this past week (and probably a few weeks before that) than Kansas City. This is the most likely landing spot for real chaos (insert: Leopold “Butters” Stotch meme).
Lombard and Booth have both had most of their traction come in the 4-6 range and common belief remains that Lombard is the priority target to the Royals if things run chalk with the top trio.
They were all over Gio Rojas and Logan Schmidt over the spring, but it sounds like Schmidt is headed for Baton Rouge and Rojas has been usurped by some college arms at a discount in the likes of Mason Edwards and Liam Peterson.
I think from a purely flatline perspective, they would take Flora over Lombard who they would take over Booth who they would take over the field led by one of the college arms over Rojas. The top trio isn’t getting here.
7. Baltimore Orioles: Drew Burress, OF, Georgia Tech
This feels like the simplest spot in the top 10. If Lombard or Booth are here, this feels like their floor with Booth as the preference. If not, it sounds like Burress over the field. If none of those three are available, that means someone from the top trio has some scary medical or makeup concerns; so, anticipate one of Lombard, Booth, Burress.
While it feels simple, Justin LeBron and Jared Grindlinger both pop up a little too often in conversations about potential fits and must be worth mentioning.
8. Athletics: Tyler Bell, SS, Kentucky
I’ve heard only collegians here with more bats coming up than arms. They’ll probably hang tight to the model of athletic, high-contact, up-the-middle dudes and Bell has been the most common name linked here though he’s all over the first round from 2-15. Derek Curiel also fits the mold and gets some run here.
This might be the high mark for Logan Reddemann and Cameron Flukey.
If Flora is available, his fall ends here. They might even be one of less than a handful of clubs who would attempt pairing him with his brother in pro ball.
9. Atlanta Braves: Gio Rojas, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS (Fla.)
Atlanta may be looking for a faller from above, and one in particular. If Burress were to slipstream here, this would be his floor though I think it’s a sub-10% chance of that happening with his name anywhere from 2-7 with heavy attachments.
There is a chance they flip-pick this with their 26th selection and go with a college bat (A.J. Gracia, Chris Hacopian, Ryder Helfrick) they know will be plucked in-between here and there and try to swing one of their preferred preps to No. 26, though they won’t be able to swing Grindlinger through the teens or Rojas past the early 20’s.
Cole Prosek and Bo Lowrance are sleeper names at this pick if Atlanta doesn’t think they’ll be options at 26.
10. Colorado Rockies: Derek Curiel, OF, LSU
For all the speculation and uncharted mystery of how this selection will go, most expect it to be pretty simplistic, and model driven. Bell and Burress come up often though neither make it past the two picks ahead of this as floor.
Curiel and Helfrick get more run than other college hitters due to positional value.
There’s some college arms that fit the Coors Field prototype that get some run here too, but the bats come up with more frequency.
Trevor Condon remains a sleeper name here and throughout the teens.
11. Washington Nationals: Jared Grindlinger, OF/LHP, Huntington Beach HS (Cal.)
Again, maybe if Bell or Burress were here things would change, but I see no reason to move off this connection which started early in the spring.
Grindlinger has fans from picks 5-15 and if 15 isn’t the floor, 20 would be. No handshakes or table deals, but this one feels pretty firm in conviction.
If, for some reason or another, it isn’t Grindlinger (as a hitter), Hacopian comes up a bunch.
12. Los Angeles Angels: Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
Plenty of eyes on this pick after the Angels parted ways with Perry Minasian and have given, what they claim, full autonomy to Tim McIlvaine and his staff with this pick.
To my understanding, Minasian front lined each first round pick, excluding two. One came as a partial pivot from the team one pick ahead sweeping a handshake deal; and the other being driven by their model and landing them Zach Neto (Minasian and McIlvaine both really liked Neto as is).
No one expects the Angels amateur staff to jump reaction and flip the script entirely from what Minasian (and ownership to a fair degree) had kind of pushed for the quick-moving, high-floor players, but… they have been linked to some high-variance upside plays that probably wouldn’t have been links in previous years.
The talk remains arms and if you would have asked me three weeks ago, I would have said they’d be taking Logan Reddemann or Hunter Dietz, though I don’t think that is the case today. They were also the high club on Carson Boleman, who there were at least mumbles about grabbing this high.
Reddemann still sounds like he is in play, but his late season medicals may have pushed him behind Rojas, Liam Peterson, Tegan Kuhns, Flukey and Mason Edwards; likely in that order.
Pipedream for the Halos would be Booth or Burress, but they’ll be long gone at this point. If they jump the position player market, Grindlinger may be tops of potential available hitters ahead of Hacopian and Helfrick. Plenty of people point to the lack of position player impact from the Angels farm and have lopped in Gracia and Ace Reese, but that feels more speculative than anything of real connection.
13. St. Louis Cardinals: Ryder Helfrick, C, Arkansas
It’s been specifically hitters linked here and I think if Curiel were available, he’d be the priority pick. Grindlinger continues to trend right here if Washington skips.
Anticipate a run of college bats throughout this range.
14. Miami Marlins: Chris Hacopian, 2B, Texas A&M
Eerily similar to St. Louis ahead of them, just loads of bats and particularly from the college side of things. Again, if Curiel was here, I think this may be the floor and I strongly anticipate him getting plucked between 10-14, excluding Washington.
Hacopian sees his range firmly between 9-15 but could have a partial free fall due to some questions about non-bat value.
LeBron taking his talents to South Beach, again, wouldn’t be a stunner.
15. Arizona Diamondbacks: Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS (Ga.)
I’m curious to see what Arizona does here because they’re so heavily linked to Condon, but are regularly mentioned as the floor for players ahead of this in the likes of Bell, Rojas, Curiel, Grindlinger; so what would they do if one of the group is available and Condon is as well?
They’ve also been linked to plenty of the arms here and could be a sleeper high mark for Zion Rose
16. Texas Rangers: Mason Edwards, LHP, USC
I think Texas will jump the arms race to split some of the college bats. They did have a heavy connection to Brody Bumila, but his elbow injury sadly dogged his stock which already came with some extreme variance.
They had plenty of prep buzz a few weeks ago that seems to have cooled off, but they could be the high mark for a handful of prep hitters and look to be one of the multiple clubs between 9-20 on Lowrance.
Edwards, Flukey, Peterson, Rojas. All could land here. Edwards has frequently mentioned suitors at 6, 12, 15, 18, 19 and beyond. Clean medicals, strong performance and age-relevance really jumped him to LHP1 on the four-year side of things.
Just for a moment of brief pause, I still have Reese and Gracia on the board, but I don’t have much faith they will be on the real board at this point. One college bat will fall; I just don’t know which one.
17. Houston Astros: Justin LeBron, SS, Alabama
Houston continues to be one of the clubs who thinks LeBron’s upside outweighs his variable hit tool and may see some star power. There are some like-minded clubs from 5-12, but after that and this, his market starts to dissipate.
If LeBron is gone by here, I think they’d take a similar profile in Sawyer Strosnider or grab a falling bat.
18. Cincinnati Reds: Zion Rose, OF, Louisville
I think Cincinnati would really like a chance at Condon or Edwards and may take a chance on LeBron. Both are gone in this scenario.
Cincinnati is looking at more superior athletes, both at the plate and on the mound, so it’s hard to place one of the falling hitters or the in-range prep bats.
Rose is making some big jumps with a healthy and solid end-of-season performance and he is a model darling.
19. Cleveland Guardians: Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State
The model will dictate the pick here, as it usually does with Cleveland, and I’m leery putting a corner (likely first baseman) to them when they’re so prominent on up-the-middle athletes.
Reese, however, is darting up boards as models started finalizing, and his short wood bat track record does lean to what Cleveland favors. Expect Reese to be a teen pick, maybe higher.
I’ve heard more collegians with Cleveland, led by Reddemann, Rose and Strosnider and Aiden Robbins.
Just to flip from last mock, they continue to dominate Southern California and were heavy on Edwards and Trey Ebel, who has similar traits to Tyler Freeman who Cleveland took above his anticipated range.
20. Boston Red Sox: Tegan Kuhns, RHP, Tennessee
This is the floor for Grindlinger and is a circle spot for Lowrance, though everyone thinks Craig Breslow and Jake Bruml are going to target arms of a particular archetype.
Kuhns and Taylor Rabe get real frequency here.
21. San Diego Padres: Bo Lowrance, 3B, Christ Church Episcopal HS (S.C.)
I think Lowrance goes here, the pick ahead, or to Atlanta at 9 or 26.
Very similar to Atlanta, I think it’s Lowrance or Prosek on the hitting side of things.
If Rojas slips this far, this is his perceived floor.
22. Detroit Tigers: Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
I’ve heard more and more this week that Detroit may take a swing at a falling arm whether it be Flukey, Peterson, Edwards or Reddemann. In this scenario, it’s Flukey, but I don’t think I’d rule out Reddemann.
Again though, left-handed hitters who project up-the-middle are the common connections.
After Condon, there is a falloff in terms of the demographic. Despite this, it’s still similar players mentioned in the likes of Aiden Ruiz and Landon Thome getting the most traction.
23. Chicago Cubs: A.J. Gracia, OF, Virginia
I think Chicago would be stoked to grab a falling bat and they may get their chance at one. If a bat like Gracia, Rose, or Reese doesn’t fall, I’d look directly at Rabe or Cade Townsend.
24. Seattle Mariners: Taylor Rabe, RHP, Ole Miss
If Condon is here, I think this is the floor even with Detroit ahead.
I could see Seattle scooping up a falling bat, similar to Chicago, but I’ve heard them on Condon and college arms. If I’m splitting hairs between the Ole Miss duo that both fits the 20-30 range, I’ll lean Rabe because of his helium.
25. Milwaukee Brewers: Cole Prosek, SS, Magnolia Heights HS (Miss.)
Full transparency, I really don’t have a strong feel for what Milwaukee will do. I think they’d grab a falling talent, but saying that three times in-a-row gives less confidence to one actually falling at this point, right?
They seem to really like Ebel and James Clark, but I’m not certain they’d jump the market on either of them here.
Prosek has fans all over the first round and some consider him to be the second-best pure hitting prep in the class behind Emerson.
Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks
26. Atlanta Braves: Cade Townsend, RHP, Ole Miss
I think if Lowrance or Prosek is here, they’d take either, and that comes with the caveat that they might like Lowrance enough to pop him at nine.
If neither are available, as is the case here, I think they’d jump to the college arms, and the Ole Miss arms get tons of traction right in this range.
27. New York Mets: Caden Sorrell, OF, Texas A&M
While I’ve heard this could be the floor for Edwards, I’ve heard mostly power-over-hit college bats here.
28. Houston Astros: Sawyer Strosnider, OF, TCU
Strosnider is falling down boards a bit, but the interest in him from Houston is real enough to think they’d maybe grab him at pick 17.
COMPETITIVE BALANCE A
29. San Francisco Giants: Carson Boleman, LHP, Southside Christian HS (S.C.)
There are a handful or more names linked to this pick as “big fish” San Francisco could swing down if they don’t land Cholowsky. Boleman comes up with the most frequency, but Lowrance and Schmidt are other names liked.
Local products Tyler Spangler and Archer Horn get some traction, but that feels a bit too on the nose and Spangler sounds like he is headed for Stanford. Horn may be a different story and has some helium towards this range.
30. Kansas City Royals: Coleman Borthwick, RHP, South Walton HS (Fla.)
Size, strikes and stuff. There’s a handful of prep arms linked here.
NOTE: I’m about to jump off the train so going to rush through these with minimal writeups.
31. Arizona Diamondbacks – Ben Blair, RHP, Liberty
32. St. Louis Cardinals – Logan Reddemann, RHP, UCLA
33. Tampa Bay Rays – Taj Marchand, SS, James Island HS (S.C.)
34. Pittsburgh Pirates – Jensen Hirschkorn, RHP, Kingsburg HS (Cal.)
35. New York Yankees: Aiden Ruiz, SS, The Stony Brook HS (N.J.)
I mentioned in the last mock that there is real interest here that has nothing to do with the local connection.
Will Gasparino continues to be mentioned with the Yankees at their second pick, and maybe even enough to under slot him here.
36. Philadelphia Phillies: Archer Horn, SS/RHP, St. Ignatius HS (Cal.)
There is a reason I’ve made this direct connection in back-to-back mocks. There’s some confidence here.
37. Colorado Rockies: Jack Slightom, RHP, Lyons HS (Ill.)
38. Colorado Rockies: Hunter Dietz, LHP, Arkansas
39. Toronto Blue Jays: Aiden Robbins, OF, Texas
This is partial place-and-plug. Sorry, Toronto. Too deep to get a real vibe.
40. Los Angeles Dodgers: Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona State
The Dodgers were all over college lefties this spring and might be able to grab one of the top ones at a discount. If not, they were all over every demographic and might pop a riskier prep archetype. Blake Bryant has some noise here.
Okay everyone, see you somewhere over the Atlantic if not before with a names only mock.
Thanks. Enjoy!
