World Cup upset predictions 2026: Teams with the best odds to bust brackets in Round of 32
World Cup upset predictions 2026: Teams with the best odds to bust brackets in Round of 32 originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Canada opened the World Cup‘s knockout stage with a flourish, delivering a momentous 1-0 win over upset-minded South Africa off the back of a stunning stoppage-time winner by Stephen Eustaquio.
Bafana Bafana had little to offer in the attack, struggling to produce clear-cut chances. And yet, its tactics nearly worked a charm. Eustaquio’s goal was one of few successful forays into the final third for Canada, who, for large swathes of the game, failed to break down Ronwen Williams’ cage.
It’s do-or-die time in the World Cup. A desire for flowing soccer gives way to a pursuit of glistening results at this stage of the tournament, with the pursuit of a win — or multiple wins — standing taller than any other footballing ideology.
For nations outside of the traditional bloc of soccer powerhouses, the prospects of a victory could prove even noteworthy. These are the results that shape a nation or region, the ones that provide the kindling that lifts unknowns into immortality.
Upsets are a time-honored tradition in the World Cup. Here’s a look at the likeliest sides to cut down their highly-rated opposition and secure a play the Round of 16 and beyond.
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World Cup upset predictions 2026
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Japan (+440) vs. Brazil (-140)
Having entered the tournament with its three highest-profile players — Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma, Monaco’s Takumi Minamino and Liverpool’s Wataru Endo — absent due to injury, Japan appeared unlikely candidates to make noise in the World Cup’s knockout stage.
Then, the games started. Samurai Blue was arguably the better of the two sides when they drew with Netherlands, brushed Tunisia aside and created myriad chances in a 1-1 tie with Sweden. Daichi Kamada, Takefusa Kubo and Ritsu Doan spearhead a talented roster that looks well-equipped to give Brazil a shock.
Selecao have looked world-beaters since drawing to Morocco in its group stage opener, posting matching 3-0 wins against Haiti and Scotland. Those are impressive results, to be sure. But the opposition certainly left something to be desired.
Brazil’s attack will prove tough to blight. But Japan’s attacking flair could leave Carlo Ancelotti’s side susceptible on quick transitions. If Samurai Blue can soak up pressure and attack with tempo, they give themselves a chance of landing a momentous result in the fixture. They’ve beaten Brazil before, overcoming a 2-0 deficit to claim a 3-2 win last October.
Croatia (+400) vs. Portugal (-125)
Portugal’s reputation as a European superpower might be slightly overblown — Selecao has only advanced past the first knockout round in one of its last four World Cups. Nevertheless, the side is teeming with talent, from Vitinha and Nuno Mendes to Bruno Fernandes and Rafael Leao.
There’s also Cristiano Ronaldo, the famed striker who bagged two goals against Uzbekistan but looked largely toothless in his other two group stage outings. Roberto Martinez has shown no signs of swapping Ronaldo out for a more mobile option like Goncalo Ramos. That could come back to bite Portugal against Croatia.
The Croats’ core is the same as it has been for more than a decade. Luka Modric stars in the midfield while Ivan Perisic will attempt to find space and time on the flanks. Younger talents like Petar Susic and Martin Baturina found their target during the group stage, breathing additional life into the Croatian ranks.
It Croatia and Portugal plays to their best, the Portuguese will win. But Portugal has rarely looked close to its pinnacle under Martinez. Expect Croatia to keep things tight in this one.
Senegal (+135) vs. Belgium (-170)
Like Portugal, Belgium endured an uneven showing in the group stage. On one hand, the Belgians emerged as group winners, traipsing out of a difficult group that featured Iran and Egypt. On the other, Belgium failed to down either of those aforementioned teams, only securing the top spot after beating lowly New Zealand.
That doesn’t inspire confidence for those believing Belgium could finally make a run towards the World Cup trophy. Romelu Lukaku has looked strong in cameo appearances and its hard to deny the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Leonardo Trossard.
Nevertheless, the team has yet to find its flow. Senegal, for all of its baffling tactical moves, is bursting with attacking talent. If Pape Thiaw feels compelled to continue to hand the reins of his roster to younger players, the Lions of Teranga could put Belgium in an awkward position before the end of Round of 32.
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Morocco (+260) vs. Netherlands (-170)
Would this really constitute an upset? Morocco is one of Africa’s great sides, adept at swash-buckling play and defensive solidity. The roster borders on faultless — particularly after securing highly-rated midfielder Ayoub Bouaddi to its ranks prior to the onset of the World Cup.
The Atlas Lions have the tournament experience, famously earning a spot in the last four of the 2022 World Cup after securing wins against Portugal and Spain in the knockout stages. They’ve added to that reputation in recent months, landing — unfairly as it might be — an AFCON “title” against Senegal.
Netherlands put Sweden to the sword and showed flashes of attacking flourish across its three-game stint in the group. But Morocco, with its devastating attack and stout defense, could leave the Oranje on the outside looking in after the Round of 32 kicks off.
