Why a ‘peaking’ Novak Djokovic remains Jannik Sinner’s biggest problem

Even at the age of 39, Novak Djokovic still believes he can peak at the right time when Wimbledon rolls around.
A month after his third-round exit at the French Open to the hands of the teenager Joao Fonseca, a defeat that appeared to signal another changing of the guard, Djokovic’s task upon returning to the All England Club is restoring the natural order. Djokovic has not played a competitive match since Roland Garros, which isn’t rare for him at this stage of his career, but arrived at Wimbledon pleased with his preparation and expressing confidence in his physical condition.
Tellingly, Djokovic gave the impression that his defeat to Fonseca, an epic five-set duel in Paris that lasted almost five hours, was not as devastating as it initially appeared. Actually, he suggested, it may have been a blessing. At the time, it felt undeniable that Djokovic was presented with a wonderful opportunity to win a record 25th grand slam, with the shock exit of Jannik Sinner and the absence of Carlos Alcaraz clearing his two biggest rivals from his path.
Djokovic, though, was not as convinced when looking back at that week. “Roland Garros was physically very draining, demanding,” he admitted. “The three matches that I played, all of them went four hours. But I’m proud of the effort. I lost in the third round against a 20-years-younger opponent. I fought until the end in the five sets. Of course, not the result I was looking for, but the effort was there.
“Anyway, I was planning to peak at Wimbledon, after the shoulder injury that kind of kept me away from the tour. I knew not having any matches going pretty much straight into Roland Garros was going to be quite difficult, maybe too big of a challenge for me at the moment.
“That’s what happened. But I knew that was going to give me a bit more time to get myself prepared for Wimbledon. Hopefully I’ll have a good tournament here.”
With seven Wimbledon titles, Djokovic remains a master of the grass courts that present a complicated challenge to most other players. Centre Court is the stage where Djokovic’s experience can rise. Even at his age, he remains an excellent mover on the grass, with his ability to slide into shots and maintain balance. Compared to the slower clay, points are typically shorter on the surface, not as “physically demanding” as the French. “I have a very good history in Wimbledon,” he said. “That gives me a higher dose of confidence coming into the tournament.”
That could be important, too. Since Djokovic’s last grand slam title at the 2023 US Open, 10 major tournaments have come and gone without success, even if reaching finals like this year’s Australian Open remains a remarkable achievement so late into his career. But at Wimbledon, Djokovic has only lost to two players since 2018: Alcaraz, his conqueror in the final in 2023 and 2024, remains sidelined due to his wrist injury, and Sinner, who defeated him in straight sets in last year’s semi-finals and returns as the defending champion.
With Djokovic seeded seventh, due to his lack of matches this year, a semi-final rematch could await after he landed in the reigning champion’s side of the draw. Djokovic would have the opportunity to emulate his stunning defeat of Sinner at the Australian Open in January, only this time Alcaraz won’t be waiting in the final. In fact, the bottom half of the men’s singles is likely to produce a first-time Wimbledon finalist. Alexander Zverev, after ending his long wait to win a major in Paris, returns as the second seed but Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz also have the form and game to go far.
But, if it wasn’t for what happened at the French Open last month, this wouldn’t even be a conversation. Sinner suffered an unthinkable collapse to Argentina’s Juan Manuel Cerundolo while struggling with illness and the Paris heat. It came after the 24-year-old had won 30 matches in a row, dominating the clay-court season. But Sinner’s intense schedule eventually caught up with him, physically and mentally, as he wilted under the scorching sun.
So, instead of Sinner entering as the overwhelming favourite, some doubts may remain. Questions remain, however, over how Sinner would deal with the heat should temperatures increase later in the tournament. After the French Open, Sinner underwent medical tests and his team made some “small changes” to their preparations for Wimbledon, including putting more emphasis on training “very long days” in warm conditions. The planet isn’t cooling down any time soon, after all. “We are doing as much as we can,” he said.”I’m very happy with the work we did in the last two and a half weeks. I feel well-prepared.”
The good news for Sinner is the heatwave London has suffered through this week is expected to break by the time he opens Centre Court against Miomir Kecmanovic on Monday afternoon. Sinner has also been able to rest, refresh, and enjoy what he described as “one of the best preparations I’ve had since a long time before a grand slam” despite London’s record June heatwave. Djokovic spoke along similar lines, but there was a bullishness to his tone, a glint in his eye. He knows this is an important opportunity, one that may not come around again.



