USA predictions for 2026 World Cup: Projecting USMNT's matches in Group D, knockouts and what success looks like
USA predictions for 2026 World Cup: Projecting USMNT’s matches in Group D, knockouts and what success looks like originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The USMNT has the chance to change the course of soccer history in the United States this summer, but they must grasp that responsibility with both hands, or else they risk letting it get away.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup set to begin for the co-hosts on June 12, the next four weeks will determine whether the team electrifies the U.S. fanbase and sets a new upward trajectory for the sport across the country, or lets a golden chance at injecting the nation with fervor slip through their fingers.
So what does the U.S. need to do in order to give soccer fans across the United States something to rally behind?
The Sporting News breaks down what success looks like for the USMNT this month, and projects where the opportunities lie and the danger lurks as the tournament progresses on home soil through the summer heat.
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What is a successful World Cup for the USMNT?
For many USMNT fans, success for the United States at the 2026 FIFA World Cup looks different.
However, when analyzing all the different possibilities and avenues, there are three natural benchmarks for the U.S. to shoot for.
The bare minimum is to reach the Round of 16, and anything below that would be a surefire disappointment. While the U.S. has only ever won one knockout game in their modern World Cup history, the new expanded format for 48 teams has brought the introduction of the Round of 32, where the U.S. is very likely to be favored over their opponent should they reach that far. Losing in the Round of 32, or tragically not even reaching the knockout stage, would be an unmitigated failure.
From there, there are two more benchmarks to reach. In all likelihood, the U.S. will be an underdog in the most probable Round of 16 matchups. Therefore, winning that game and reaching the quarterfinals would make the tournament an unmitigated success. The USMNT has only ever reached the quarterfinals of a modern World Cup once, coming back in 2002, and equaling that national team record would make the 2026 tournament a prosperous one for the United States men.
The third and final benchmark would see the USMNT reach the semifinals, which would be nothing short of a dream. To do so, the U.S. would very likely have to beat at least one, possibly two top-tier opponents, unless the draw softens for them in the wake of multiple upsets. Anything at this stage would be not just a success, but beyond expectations for the co-hosts in 2026.
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Why the group stage is so critical for the USMNT
While the new, expanded format makes it highly improbable that the United States will be under threat of elimination in the group stage, that does not mean that the jeopardy has been extracted from the first phase of the World Cup in 2026.
Instead, while the threat of elimination may not be imminent, the importance of group stage finish is heightened, and becomes the sole focus of the USMNT through the first three games.
Three points from a team’s first three matches, in all likelihood, will be enough to escape the group stage. What that minimum threshold won’t do, however, is set the U.S. up for success in the knockout stage.
To reach their goals, the United States have to win Group D, as anything less will leave them with an enormous mountain to climb in the knockout stage.
Should the USMNT finish atop the Group D standings, their draw as a group winner would give them a third-place qualifier in the Round of 32, a match they would likely be favored to win. They would then be projected to face Belgium in the Round of 16, one of the softest possible draws at a stage of the tournament where only the most talented and deserving sides would remain, and beggars certainly cannot be choosers.
While second place would be a respectable and safe finish for the USMNT in a group that features tricky European opponent Turkey, it would leave the U.S. in great peril early on. They would face another second-place finisher in the Round of 32, a potentially tricky affair in its own right especially should a Pot 1-caliber team suffer an early slip, but it’s what lies ahead that could be the most devastating. Their most likely projected opponent in the Round of 16 in this scenario would be defending champions Argentina, who would be massively favored to end the co-hosts’ tournament.
Qualifying with a third-place finish in Group D brings even more danger, and earlier than the previous scenarios. The U.S. would likely face a group winner in the Round of 32, putting their backs up against the wall from the get-go in the knockout round.
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USMNT predictions at the 2026 World Cup
USA vs. Paraguay: Group D, Match 1
First up for the United States in Group D play is South American qualifier Paraguay, ranked 40th in the world by FIFA.
This should be — has to be — a victory for the United States against a team they have enjoyed recent success against, including a 2-1 victory just a few months back, with Folarin Balogun’s 71st-minute goal giving the USMNT the one-goal win back in November.
Anything less than three points here would put the U.S. in danger of a disappointing group stage finish, which leaves them at risk of an adverse knockout stage draw as outlined above.
Prediction: USA 2-1 Paraguay
USA vs. Australia: Group D, Match 2
The U.S. should also secure a victory in this game against an opponent they beat in comeback fashion last October, securing a 2-1 victory on a brace from World Cup participant Haji Wright.
Ranked 27th in the world, Australia are a difficult opponent to face for sure, and present significant peril if they let their concentration lapse, but the U.S. should be able to win this game and position themselves well for a shot at winning the group.
Prediction: USA 2-0 Australia
USA vs. Turkey: Group D, Match 3
This is the game that will determine the USMNT’s knockout stage fate. The U.S. has not beaten a European opponent in nearly five full calendar years, and Turkey are a formidable side. The U.S. may be ranked higher, with their 17th-placed mark just slightly ahead of Turkey at 22, but in reality, Turkey will almost certainly be favored ahead of this game.
Turkey come into this match with some top-tier European talent, including rising Real Madrid star Arda Guler and starlet Kenan Yildiz, and stopping them from scoring will be exceedingly difficult.
The USMNT’s desired outcome from this match will be whatever gets them through to the knockout stage at the top of the Group D standings, and that could very well come down to tiebreakers such as goal difference or goals scored. In the end, the U.S. will hope a draw is enough to get the job done.
Prediction: USA 1-1 Turkey
USA in World Cup Round of 32
Should they end up first in Group D standings, the U.S. will enjoy a soft Round of 32 draw, which is the whole point of securing the best possible group stage finish. While the possible opponents vary greatly from one of the 446 possible combinations of third-place qualifiers, the most likely opponents would be the third place finisher from either Group B (Canada, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar, Switzerland) or Group I (France, Senegal, Iraq, Norway).
If they finish second in the group, the draw becomes far more difficult. Their Round of 32 opponent would be the second-place finisher from Group G (Belgium, Egypt, Iran, New Zealand), which feels likely to be Egypt, but could be a testy affair with Iran, or even against Belgium should the Europeans slip in group stage play like they did four years ago.
Because of the extremely wide variance in scenarios here, it’s impossible to make a prediction, but suffice it to say the U.S. will expect to escape from the Round of 32, because defeat here would be immeasurably embarrassing for the 2026 host nation.
USA in World Cup Round of 16
Reaching this stage would check off the bare minimum of success for the United States at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Predicting out the potential opponent is, in all likelihood, a fruitless affair given the amount of chaos that usually befalls this tournament every four years. However, we’ll take a look at the most likely scenarios.
If the U.S. won Group D and got past its third-place opponent in the Round of 32, then their most likely Round of 16 opponent is Belgium, who are heavily favored to win Group G. For this stage of the tournament, where group winners are by far the most likely to progress, facing a team such as Belgium would be a welcome affair for the U.S. who will aim to secure revenge for the 2014 side that fell to an agonizing defeat at this same stage.
Anything less than a group win, however, and the possibilities in the Round of 16 become daunting. A second-place finish for the U.S. in group play coupled with a Round of 32 victory most likely sees them meet defending champions Argentina, a monumental ask for any side expecting less than a World Cup title.
If the U.S. reaches this stage, they will very likely be an underdog, but to what extent will matter greatly. If they bow out here, it will be a low-level success for the United States, albeit one without showing much growth from previous World Cup results. Victory here over what will likely be a higher-ranked side, however, would display tangible progress made by the USMNT on the world stage.
USA in World Cup quarterfinals
Reaching this stage in any capacity would be considered a significant success for the United States, as doing so would require them to secure two knockout stage victories, having only previously won one such match in modern World Cup history, coming against Mexico back in 2002.
At this point, projecting out possible opponents is an entirely vain exercise. Suffice it to say that the USMNT would have the odds stacked against them, but would be playing with house money.
