There are some things the German national football team simply knows how to do. Penalty shoot-outs, for example.
Germany not only won the first penalty shoot-out in World Cup history in 1982 against France, but also remained unbeaten in each of the three that followed. Only Croatia has managed the same 100% record.
Incidentally, the worst nation in World Cup penalty shoot-outs is not England as some may believe. That dubious honour falls to Spain who have only prevailed once in five attempts on the global stage.
How to (almost) always score
Yet success is not a lottery.
Statistically speaking, it’s simple: shoot high and hit the target accurately.
According to data provider Opta, there have been 39 shots into the upper third of the goal in World Cup penalty shoot-outs and every single one has gone in.
However, aiming there is quite difficult, which is why most players chose one of the bottom corners. From the shooter’s perspective, the left corner is preferred, as around 85% of penalties aimed there have been converted.
But there are other factors as well, precision being one of them.
An analysis of nearly 100,000 penalties taken worldwide in men’s and women’s competitions since 2009 found that accuracy matters more than power. In addition, the probability of scoring increases if the run-up is longer than five steps.
Another key ingredient is time. The penalty-taker should take it to lower the heart rate and increase concentration. For a long time, English players were the quickest to take their penalties — and they were also the ones getting eliminated.
Statistically it makes no difference which team shoots first in a penalty shoot-out but there is a big difference when it comes to crunch time.
If a player can send his team into the next round with a successful penalty the conversion rate is 92%. The success rate drops to 60% when missing means defeat.
The goalkeepers’ preparation
Jens Lehmann’s famous note from Germany’s 2006 World Cup shoot-out against Argentina is now a museum piece.
Nowadays, goalkeepers prepare for penalty shoot-outs in a much more advanced way. Every goalkeeper receives briefings from the coaching staff, along with analysis of the preferred corners of every likely penalty taker. All of this is compiled with the help of artificial intelligence.
However, that’s only one side of the preparation and the penalty takers are, of course, aware of it.
Former Denmark keeper Kasper Schmeichel also spoke about working with a mind reader.
“Basically, they just plant ideas in your head. So we asked one what we could do to influence the shooter,” Schmeichel said.
The answer: overemphasize certain words to irritate the taker and put pressure on him.
At the 2018 World Cup, Denmark played Peru, and Peru was awarded a penalty. “I kept over-emphasising the word over, ‘Don’t hit this over,’ all these kinds of things, emphasizing the word over,” Schmeichel recalled.
The taker skied the ball and Denmark won 1-0. Schmeichel meanwhile admitted: “Whether it made a difference, I don’t know.”
The psychological aspect
“Being the penalty taker in a World Cup shoot-out means enormous pressure,” says Geir Jordet. The Norwegian sports psychologist has been researching penalties for more than 20 years. National teams and clubs make use of his findings.
“It’s more of a human challenge than a footballing one,” Jordet says.
Until just a few years ago, penalty shoot-outs relied heavily on chance and a player’s form on the day. This only increased the pressure, and even superstars failed. Roberto Baggio’s famous miss for Italy in the 1994 World Cup final against Brazil is just one example.
But things are changing.
In 2018, the English Football Association launched the “Penalty Project” and brought Jordet on board as a consultant. The goal was to make penalty shootouts less of a lottery.
The result: England went from being the worst penalty shoot-out team in major tournaments (six defeats from seven between 1990 and 2012) to one of the best (winning three of four since 2018).
According to Jordet, several factors contributed to this transformation.
First, penalties should be practised regularly, and training should simulate pressure as realistically as possible. Penalties should also be viewed as a team effort — for example, when the goalkeeper hands the ball to the taker while also offering encouraging words.
Training for shoot-outs
Gareth Southgate knows what losing a penalty shoot-out feels like. In the Euro 1996 semi-final at Wembley the Englishman missed against Germany, and the Germans went on to become champions.
When Southgate became England manager 10 years ago he incorporated penalties into training.
At the end of demanding sessions, players had to take accurate penalties with tired legs. Even the walk from the centre circle to the penalty spot was practised to recreate a sense of pressure.
“People say penalty shoot-outs are just luck. I don’t believe that. If you practice them and know exactly where you’re going to shoot, you have an advantage,” centre-back John Stones said.
In England’s training sessions, players had to choose a corner beforehand and stick to it. Some players also adopted an identical routine every time.
“I always do exactly the same thing, no matter where I’m shooting,” captain Harry Kane said. “That way goalkeepers can’t analyse me, because there’s nothing to analyze.”
