With 28 games remaining in the 2026 MLB regular season, the San Diego Padres are holding on to the final playoff spot by one game. After playing three series from August 17-26, the Friars fought through the inconsistency of their offense to post a 5-4 record over the nine games.
The starting pitching, which had been so unreliable leading up to the trade deadline, has been a strength for this team over the past two weeks.
Of those nine games, there were six quality starts for the Padres pitchers, with one of those shorter starts due to a Casey Mize injury. Fortunately, the injury to Mize’s ankle is not severe and he is listed to make his next start tomorrow against Tampa Bay.
Left-hander Robbie Ray, the other acquisition at the deadline (with Mize), tends to walk batters but has learned to pitch around traffic on the bases. Despite walking 13 in his 20.1 innings pitched for the Padres, Ray had a quality start in his outing against the New York Mets (the only win in New York).
The Friars have a 22-9 record since July 24, the best in MLB in that time. With the remaining schedule of 28 games, the Padres need to play to an 18-10 record to reach another season of at least 90 wins. That would require winning two of three games for the remainder of the season.
They are two games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the second Wild Card spot and only one game up on the Arizona Diamondbacks to hold onto the last Wild Card spot.
Starters excellence
The recent consistency from the starting rotation, combined with the season-long excellence from the bullpen, highlights the need for more consistent offense from this team. They will only go as far as this offense can take them. There have been really bad stretches and really great stretches, with inconsistency being the only thing we have been able to depend on from them.
The starters’ success, which has decreased the strain on their excellent bullpen, goes a long way toward taking the pressure off the offense. The offense can be more patient or more aggressive, as the situation dictates, if they aren’t working against a deficit. A struggling starting staff places more demands on any offense.
Offense has to do better versus good pitching
The Padres offense, already a streaky group, has a poor record against the best pitchers in MLB. That really isn’t a surprise considering they are the best pitchers for a reason. But this team is faring worse than the other teams in baseball against these good pitchers.
Per Kevin Acee’s daily newsletter of Aug. 27, the Padres offense is 7-16 against starters with an ERA of 3.50 or better (who have pitched 100 innings or more). In the games against those pitchers, the Padres hitters have allowed an ERA of 2.10.
This was well illustrated in the just-completed Pittsburgh Pirates series. The Padres got the three best starters Pittsburgh has over the past three games. They scored a total of five runs in 27 innings while the Padres pitching staff allowed four runs, losing two of the three games.
In the postseason, if they get there, the Padres offense will see the best of the best from any team they face.
Long scoreless streaks are not new with this offense. The 24-inning scoreless streak versus the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2024 playoffs remains a source of stress for fans. And they went 14 innings of scoreless baseball against the Pirates pitchers.
For any Padres team to do well in the playoffs and advance beyond the Wild Card round, they have to solve their issues versus good pitching.
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis has once again shown what he is capable of.
After struggling for the first several weeks of the season, Tatis seemingly stabilized his offense and had a good first half in terms of his batting average and on-base ability. His slugging was woefully behind those other skills. His five home runs before the All-Star break are well documented. His 12 homers since then have been a revelation. He has given all of baseball another example of what he can do both offensively and defensively. Now Tatis looks like he will have another 20/20 season, assuming he can hit three more home runs over the next 28 games, to go along with his (current) 30 stolen bases.
The surge is too late to get him up to the numbers in his best seasons, or to make him part of any award discussions, but Tatis is a thrilling player and entertainer at his best.
Jackson Merrill is still very young
There is no debate regarding how frustrating a season Jackson Merrill is having. He has been healthy for the entire season, playing in 131 of the Padres 134 games. In 549 plate appearances, Merrill is hitting .239/.289/.416 with 21 doubles, three triples, 21 home runs, and 67 RBI. He has 136 strikeouts to 35 walks (24.8% K rate and 6.4% walk rate). He chases outside the strike zone at a 37.3% rate.
His Baseball Savant page is a study in contrasts. He is so good when he makes contact but is awful at selecting pitches to hit.
The Pittsburgh series is again an illustration of how bad and how good Merrill can be. In the first two games, Merrill was 0-for-9 with four strikeouts. He struck out twice in both games while swinging at pitches mostly way out of the strike zone; he chased 13 of 20 pitches out of the zone.
In the third game, Merrill hit a pitch out of the zone for a double in his first at-bat. In his second time up, he lined a strike on the inside of the plate for an RBI-triple. His last two appearances resulted in a hard-hit out and a walk.
The undisciplined offense isn’t a surprise when you remember the center fielder is 23-years-old and missed significant portions of his sophomore season in 2025.
Merrill has always been a big swinger, and that might not change as he matures as a big-leaguer. What will probably improve, considering his maturity, is that he will make better decisions with more experience. Merrill’s best baseball is still ahead of him.
Bradley Rodriguez is a star
The Padres have an excellent bullpen. No one in baseball will argue that point. There can be an argument made that Bradgley Rodriguez is quickly becoming the third standout, high-leverage pitcher in the Padres ‘pen (joining Mason Miller and Adrián Morejón).
Over his brief time in San Diego last season, Rodriguez made an impression. He broke spring camp with the Padres to begin this year. Over his 67.2 innings pitched with the team, Rodriguez has a 1.86 ERA.
For 2026, he has a 1.95 ERA in 60 innings and has gone from low-leverage appearances to throwing a two-inning save in the last game versus the Pirates. He has been an opener four times and has two saves on his resume for the season.
Over his 60 IP this season, Rodriguez has 65 strikeouts to 17 walks. His Baseball Savant page demonstrates excellence in everything except the amount of extension he gets on the mound. His changeup is devastating with a .143 average against while using it 42.7% of his pitches. His four-seam fastball averages 98 mph but frequently hits 100 mph. It is tied with his 94 mph sinker as his second most-used pitch (both at 25%).
Bradgley Rodriguez turned 22 on May 31 of this year. He won’t be eligible for free agency until 2032.
Adrián Morejón will be a free agent at the end of this season. He has expressed a desire to stay with the Padres. We can all dream on what this bullpen would look like with Morejon, Miller, and Rodriguez as the stars for the next several years.
Roster changes and injury updates
Outfielder Samad Taylor has played in seven games with the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas to begin his rehab from an oblique strain. He is hitting .304 with a .407 OBP. It seems likely he will be activated soon.
RHP Nick Pivetta made a rehab start for Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm on August 25. In 3 innings pitched, Pivetta allowed 4 hits (2 homers), 3 earned runs, a walk, and four strikeouts in 47 pitches thrown and 35 strikes. His fastball sat 91-95 mph while also throwing his secondary pitches. He will be in Arizona to throw a bullpen while the team is on the road.
Joe Musgrove will start for El Paso on Thursday. It is likely his last rehab start before roster expansion on Sept. 1.
RHP Jeremiah Estrada returned to the injured list for the third time this season with a right shoulder impingement. His previous IL stint was for right knee inflammation. RHP David Morgan replaces Estrada in the bullpen. Morgan also spent time on the IL earlier this season and has pitched with El Paso since then.
RHP Jason Adam remains on the IL but has said in interviews that he is progressing in his throwing program and hopes to be ready sometime in September.
Utility man/DH Miguel Andujar is progressing with his baseball activities but no rehab assignment has been announced.
Outfielder Dustin Harris was promoted from El Paso to the Padres on August 24, with infielder Sung-Mun Song sent to Triple-A. RHP
RHP Lucas Giolito was moved to the 60-day IL to make room for Harris on the roster. Giolito was placed on the IL in June with right elbow inflammation. He was on a throwing progression to rehab his elbow but reportedly hit a wall after the All-Star break.
RHP Yu Darvish was at Petco Park on Wednesday, August 26 to throw a bullpen. He posted a video on X, explaining that he is on track with his rehab from elbow surgery last year. He thanked the Padres for supporting him despite not officially being a member of the team. Darvish forfeited his $15 million salary for this season to rehab on his own and spend time with his family.
