Conor Orr is not merely predicting a Detroit Lions rebound in 2026.
He is forecasting a full-blown return to the top of the NFC.
In his annual exercise predicting every game of the NFL regular season, the Sports Illustrated senior writer has Detroit finishing 14-3, comfortably winning the NFC North and securing the conference’s No. 1 playoff seed.
That would give the Lions a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Orr Predicts a Fast Start for Detroit
Orr has the Lions winning four of their first five games, with Detroit’s only early loss coming at Buffalo in Week 2.
The favorable opening stretch has been a recurring theme in his Lions analysis. Orr previously predicted Detroit would win the NFC North, arguing that early victories could build enough momentum to carry Dan Campbell’s team through a more challenging finish.
Here is Orr’s full game-by-game prediction:
| Week | Opponent | Location | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | Home | Win |
| 2 | Buffalo Bills | Away | Loss |
| 3 | New York Jets | Home | Win |
| 4 | Carolina Panthers | Away | Win |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | Away | Win |
| 6 | Bye | ||
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | Home | Win |
| 8 | Minnesota Vikings | Home | Loss |
| 9 | Miami Dolphins | Away | Win |
| 10 | New England Patriots | Neutral site | Win |
| 11 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Home | Win |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | Home | Win |
| 13 | Atlanta Falcons | Away | Win |
| 14 | Tennessee Titans | Home | Win |
| 15 | Minnesota Vikings | Away | Win |
| 16 | New York Giants | Home | Win |
| 17 | Chicago Bears | Away | Win |
| 18 | Green Bay Packers | Away | Loss |
Projected record: 14-3
Orr’s prediction includes a nine-game winning streak from Week 9 through Week 17. That would require Detroit to survive road games against Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota and Chicago while handling every home opponent during that stretch.
Bold? Absolutely. Impossible? Not with this offense and that schedule.
Lions Run Away With the NFC North
Orr does not expect much of a divisional race.
His projected NFC North standings have Detroit finishing four games ahead of both Green Bay and Chicago:
| Team | Projected Record |
|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 14-3 |
| Green Bay Packers | 10-7 |
| Chicago Bears | 10-7 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9-8 |
Winning the North by four games would represent a dramatic response after Detroit’s disappointing 9-8 finish in 2025.
Orr believes the schedule creates an opening. He also sees plenty to like about Detroit’s offensive reset under Drew Petzing, whose arrival should bring more stability to the running game and protection plan after last season’s midyear coordinator change.
That matters because the Lions did not need a complete offensive rebuild. Even during a frustrating season, Detroit remained among the league leaders in several major offensive categories.
The pieces are still here. Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta give Petzing one of the NFL’s deepest collections of skill talent.
Detroit Lands the NFC’s No. 1 Seed
The 14-3 prediction would also place Detroit one game ahead of the Los Angeles Rams, whom Orr has finishing 13-4.
That gives the Lions the top seed, a first-round playoff bye and the possibility of playing every NFC postseason game at Ford Field.
Detroit fans already know how much that path matters.
Winning three playoff games is difficult enough. Having to travel across the country in January can turn a manageable matchup into a much tougher assignment. A 14-win regular season would allow the Lions to rest during Wild Card Weekend and force the NFC to come through Detroit.
Orr recently included the Lions among the 14 teams he believes can genuinely win Super Bowl LXI, pointing to the forgiving schedule, Detroit’s offensive production and Petzing’s potential impact.
He is clearly not treating the Lions as a fringe playoff team.
He sees a Super Bowl contender.
Are 14 Wins Realistic?
Predicting individual NFL games in August is always dangerous. Injuries, turnovers and unexpected quarterback breakouts will destroy plenty of preseason forecasts.
Fourteen wins also leaves almost no room for a prolonged slump.
Detroit must rebuild parts of its offensive line, overcome uncertainty in the secondary and navigate three consecutive NFC North road games late in the season. Orr has the Lions beating Minnesota and Chicago before losing at Green Bay in Week 18.
That finish could determine whether Detroit gets the No. 1 seed or spends Wild Card Weekend playing instead of resting.
Still, the central argument makes sense.
The Lions have an elite offensive ceiling, a manageable schedule and a roster filled with players who experienced both the 2024 breakthrough and the disappointment that followed. They should enter 2026 with urgency.
Would 12 wins feel realistic? Yes.
Could a few close games push that total to 14? Orr believes so.
Bottom Line
Conor Orr has the Detroit Lions finishing 14-3, winning the NFC North by four games and securing the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.
His prediction depends on Detroit dominating a favorable schedule, beginning 4-1 and putting together a nine-game winning streak during the heart of the season. That is an aggressive forecast, but it reflects the talent still sitting inside Allen Park.
After a 9-8 season that left Detroit watching the playoffs from home, a 14-win resurgence would be one heck of a response.
Orr believes the Lions are capable of it.
Now comes the fun part. Seeing whether Detroit can turn a glowing August prediction into football reality.
