PHILADELPHIA − The hazy air wafting down from Canada wasn’t the only thing casting a pall on the Phillies‘ 4-1 loss to the New York Mets on July 16.
For the Phillies, there was also the news that reliever Brad Keller, the Phillies’ big-ticket signing last offseason, will be lost for the season after being diagnosed with a torn ligament in his elbow.
Keller was signed as the setup man to closer Jhoan Duran.
So now, everything seems to be in disarray as the Phillies approach the Aug. 3 deadline. Already, a high-leverage reliever was considered one of the Phillies’ major needs, along with a right-handed hitting outfielder, and a No. 4 starting pitcher.
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But really, on any given day, the order of needs could change. We saw all of the Phillies’ needs exposed in their loss to the Mets on July 16.
In addition to the Keller news, the Phillies’ offense was punchless, managing just four hits and avoiding a shutout only because of Trea Turner’s homer in the eighth inning.
Still, the Phillies are 54-44, and just 2 ½ games out of first place in the NL East. If they season ended today, they would be a wildcard playoff team.
Sure, Aaron Nola had been pitching better of late. That continued through six innings against the Mets. Then he gave up back-to-back home runs to start the seventh to Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez, the Mets’ No. 8 and 9 hitters. That put the Phillies in a 3-0 hole.
So where to begin?
Let’s start with the premise that the Phillies’ farm system isn’t good.
They have few top prospects, and the Phillies obviously want to keep those players such as shortstop Aidan Miller and pitcher Gage Wood. And they’re still bullish on pitcher Andrew Painter, who was sent back to Triple-A in June with a 7.06 ERA, and center fielder Justin Crawford.
That would theoretically preclude them from getting a top right-handed hitter, or a top reliever or starting pitcher such as Detroit’s Tarik Skubal.
That doesn’t mean the Phillies won’t do anything.
“I’ve always said I’m pretty comfortable with this club the way it is,” Phillies manager Don Mattingly said. “I know we’re always going to try to get better. Everybody is going to try to get better at the deadline if they can. For me, I’m comfortable with where we’re at.
“If you say this is our club the rest of the way, and whoever is in the minor leagues is going to help us, then we go forward and we’re good enough to win.”
Can bullpen recover from Brad Keller injury?
As for Keller, he said he will seek a second opinion. If Tommy John surgery is required, that would end Keller’s season, and probably carry over into much of the 2027 season. But Mattingly said Keller’s season is most likely over even if he does not need surgery.
“It’s tough, tough news,” Keller said. “Obviously with the team and the position that we’re in, you want to come in the second half and fight with the boys. Just tough to swallow this pill right now.”
For now, Mattingly said the Phillies can recover just by shifting everyone’s slot. So Orion Kerkering and Jonathan Bowlan, who has earned Mattingly’s trust over the past month, become the high-leverage guys. And Duran has been practically automatic this season as the closer, with 21 saves in 22 chances.
That also requires Jose Alvarado, the lone lefty in the bullpen, pitching better than his 6.82 ERA, or as Mattingly put it, “Alvy being Alvy again.”
The Phillies’ bullpen problems have mostly been the middle relievers.
That issue can be solved, of course, by not needing them as much. Here’s where a No. 4 starter comes in.
Finding a starting pitcher
The Phillies are obviously set with a top three of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. Those pitchers can, and do, pitch deep into games, giving the bullpen somewhat of a respite.
But with Painter in the minors, Nola is the No. 4 starter and the Phillies have gone with Alan Rangel/bullpen game as No. 5. That’s not sustainable.
So trading for a No. 4 starter such as the Royals’ Michael Wacha could push Nola back to No. 5 and ease that bullpen burden somewhat.
Or the Phillies can hope Painter, who’s still 23 years old, can figure out his issues in the minors and come back up in the next month or so. Or the Phillies can bring up Wood by September and use him either as a No. 5 starter or reliever in the playoffs.
What about a right-handed cleanup hitter?
Like everything else, those players aren’t readily available in a trade, either. At least not cheaply.
The Phillies made a minor trade in June for Derek Hill, and he has worked out well so far, hitting .327 in 23 games. Maybe he’s this year’s version of Harrison Bader.
Brandon Marsh, an All Star, has slumped over the past few weeks, seeing his average dip below .300 for the first time since April 30. Marsh is hitting .179 in July. As the cleanup hitter, that’s not helping Bryce Harper, who bats third.
The Phillies have tried Alec Bohm at the No. 4 spot, too, but he’s hitting just .215.
So really, what the Phillies could do at the trade deadline is see what the best deal is regardless of need, make it, then plug the rest with what they have.
And that can change day to day leading up to Aug. 3.
Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on X @Mfranknfl. Sign up for the “Eye On The Eagles” newsletter, emailed to your inbox every Friday morning. Read his coverage of the Eagles’ championship season in “Flying High,” a hardcover coffee-table book from Delaware Online/The News Journal. Details at Fly.ChampsBook.com
This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Do Phillies need new trade strategy with elbow injury to key reliever?
