Blue Jays receive concerning 10.1% odds from ESPN amid 45-51 start originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The Toronto Blue Jays, the team that won the American League in 2025 and made it to Game 7 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, are having a bad 2026 season.
As the Blue Jays exit the All-Star break, they’re 45-51, and sitting 12.0 games back in the AL East. That’s worrying on its own, and their odds of winning the division are very low. But, what about making the postseason in a very weak AL?
Well, according to ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle, the Blue Jays received very concerning 10.1% odds to make the postseason this year, even in a weak AL, as the team has struggled that much in the year after their World Series appearance.
Blue Jays have just a 10.1% chance to make postseason
“Record: 45-51 | Projected final record: 77-85. Division title odds: 0.1% | Playoff odds: 10.1% | Championship odds: 0.1%,” Doolittle projects.
Toronto is well behind in the AL East hunt coming out of the All-Star break, and when it comes to the AL Wild Card, they’re only 2.5 games back.
But, despite being so close to a postseason spot, because it’s a tightly-contested AL Wild Card, with only the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels, and Kansas City Royals more than 3.5 games back, the Blue Jays have a lot of competition for a postseason spot.
If the Blue Jays can’t go on a winning streak soon, they might be in a very tricky spot by the August 3 trade deadline.
They already have just a 10.1% chance to make the postseason. If things get worse in the next few weeks, Toronto might have to seriously consider selling.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled this season, especially as a power hitter with just six homers on the year. Of their players with at least 100 at-bats, Kazuama Okamoto is the team leader with a .788 OPS.
A few others are in the .700’s, but they don’t have an .800 OPS or above hitter on the roster. Overall, the Blue Jays have a .690 OPS, 26th in MLB. That’s just not good enough offensively to make the postseason.
Their pitching staff, ranked 14th in MLB with a 4.13 ERA, is not good enough to make up for the poor offense. No matter how good Louis Varland and Dylan Cease are, they desperately need their offense to improve.
With just a 10.1% chance to make the postseason, the Blue Jays are in a concerning situation. Unless they turn it around in the next few weeks, they might have to be deadline sellers, which would only lower those playoff odds close to zero.
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