Blue Jays get wild Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run prediction that seems impossible
Blue Jays get wild Vladimir Guerrero Jr. home run prediction that seems impossible originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The Toronto Blue Jays are not having the kind of season they were hoping to have, as they’re coming out of the All-Star break under .500, and outside of a postseason spot.
While the weak AL Wild Card hunt allows the Blue Jays to still have a chance for a postseason spot, there are a lot of things worth worrying about with this team. The struggles of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. might be the biggest.
He’s hit just six home runs this season, and doesn’t look close to the kind of hitter he was a year ago. But, Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report is predicting that Guerrero won’t simply rebound, but he’ll do so by leading the league in homers in the second half.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. predicted to lead MLB in second-half HRs
“Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads MLB in second-half home runs,” Reuter predicts. “The 27-year-old has proven he can catch fire at the plate, and two of his six long balls came in the final four games of the first half.”
Guerrero has just six home runs this season in 92 games played as the second half of the year gets underway. He had 23 homers in 2025, 30 the year before that, and even hit 48 home runs in 2021.
So far this season, Guerrero’s home run rate is at a paltry 1.5%, which is less than half of the HR rate he’s had in all but his rookie season with the Blue Jays.
For this prediction from Reuter to come true, Guerrero would need to dramatically improve his play from now until the end of the season.
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While he’s shown the ability to hit many home runs in a season before, including over short periods of time, it’s hard to believe he could have such a second-half considering how much he struggled this season.
If there is one thing helping him out, it’s that he’s a better slugger in the second-half of seasons during his career. Guerrero has hit 79 home runs in the second half across 1,558 at-bats, while he’s hit 101 homers in 2,295 first-half at-bats.
During the second half of a season, Guerrero’s home-run-rate is 5.0%, while his first-half rate is just 4.4% for his career. It’s not a huge difference, but he does typically hit more homers as the season moves along.
Would it be shocking for Guerrero to hit more than six homers in the second half? No, that’s not impossible at all. But, for Guerrero to lead all of MLB in home runs after the All-Star break would be a wild outcome considering his brutal first half.
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