Without experience or knowledge of the course, it might level the playing field to the point where well-rounded players reign supreme. If that’s the case, Fleetwood should be in the mix come Sunday.
TPC Toronto will play host to the RBC Canadian Open this week which is an important note in terms of handicapping this event. It’ll be only the second edition played at TPC Toronto with last year being the first. That means we don’t have a ton of data available and we will need to acknowledge that as a blind spot for this week.
Ryan Fox was victorious in a playoff last year which required an 18-under par score to qualify for. The scorecard will read nearly 7,400 yards as a par-70 but, while long, that alone won’t be a detriment to the scoring average.
Winner: Tommy Fleetwood (+1200)
Fleetwood encountered a “mini-slump” this year but has started to play his way back into form. His T4 finish at the Memorial last week was more evidence that he’s back to being one of the top players in the world.
At no point this year has he lost the driver. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in nine of his ten starts this season which will give him a solid floor this week at TPC Toronto. His approach play hasn’t been as consistent but he’s capable of catching fire. He’s gained at least four strokes on approach four different times this season.
Remember this is only the second time that TPC Toronto will host the Canadian Open, which could simply benefit the best players. Without experience or knowledge of the course, it might level the playing field to the point where well-rounded players reign supreme. If that’s the case, Fleetwood should be in the mix come Sunday.
Winner: Alex Fitzpatrick (+4200)
It’s getting really hard to ignore the play of Alex Fitzpatrick who continues to impress no matter what tour or format he’s playing in. The man can simply put his ball in the hole more efficiently than his peers.
He’s made 15 starts globally and has notched two wins and five top-10 finishes. Since joining the PGA TOUR full time, he’s proving to be an accomplished driver of the ball – picking up +0.51 strokes per round. He doesn’t have enough rounds to officially qualify for stats, but that would rank him 17th on TOUR, just behind Ludvig Aberg.
He closed with a 65 last week, the round of the day, to further cement the fact that he belongs on this circuit.
Top 5: Collin Morikawa (+430)
It’s been an eventful year for Morikawa who captured victory at Pebble Beach but spent most of the year dealing with an ailing back – the injury that forced him to withdraw from THE PLAYERS Championship after just one hole.
Despite the distractions, Morikawa has been compiling an elite stat profile led by his approach play. He’s gained +0.88 strokes on approach per round this season, which is the best mark on TOUR. He’s been a tiny negative putter, to the tune of -0.02 per round, but has been excellent in all the tee-to-green categories.
In only ten events, he’s earned the previously mentioned win and four other top-10 finishes. If the injury concerns are behind him, he’s very clearly the class of this field. I’m giving him a little wiggle room since we haven’t seen him tee it up competitively since the PGA Championship, but I expect a solid week from Morikawa.
Top 10: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+475)
This is Yellamaraju’s national open and it couldn’t come at a better time. The PGA TOUR rookie is having a career year highlighted by his T5 at THE PLAYERS Championship and T6 in Houston the following start.
He is a Total Driving stud – ranking inside the top 50 in both driving accuracy and driving distance. His Total Driving rank this year is 5th behind Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, Michael Brennan, and Jordan Smith.
The rest of his game is a little raw, but he has the ability to get scoring hot. He’s gained 4+ strokes on approach twice in his last eight measure events and he’s gained 2+ strokes putting three times during the same stretch.
If he can marry those two things together, he’ll contend for Top Canadian and might even contend to win this event.
Top 20: Kristoffer Reitan (+120)
We are seeing the emergence of Reitan right before our eyes. While his win at the Truist Championship was unlikely, it wasn’t out of nowhere. He has rattled off two top-15 finishes and a runner-up in the four starts prior to his victory.
His biggest weapon is the driver. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in all but one start this year and he’s putting up massive numbers in the process. His SG: Off-the-Tee is in line with Chris Gotterup, Xander Schauffele, and Min Woo Lee who are considered elite drivers.
He’s a fearless player whose game is as sharp as ever. He should be able to lean into his skills at TPC Toronto for a nice week.
Top 20: Tom Kim (+270)
When Tom Kim burst onto the scene a few years ago, he had a rare combination of skills. He was deadly accurate off-the-tee, despite his lack of distance. He followed that up by being elite on approaches and he garnered the ability to catch fire with his putter. It was electric.
Things have changed since then and Kim has struggled, but there is a bright spot emerging again. His approach play in 2026 has been fantastic. He’s gaining nearly 0.50 strokes on approach per round and he’s beaten the field in eight of his last nine measured events. He has flashed the upside, gaining 5+ strokes on approach in three of his last six measure starts.
There is still work for Kim to do, but he’s trending in the right direction and this appears to be a suitable venue for him.
