Las Vegas Raiders’ training camp is just around the corner, and it feels like every year there is at least one player who gets cut or traded off the roster that many didn’t see coming. So, let’s take a stab at predicting who the 2026 surprise cut might be at the end of the summer.
Isaiah Pola-Mao
While Pola-Mao has been the Raiders’ starting free safety over the last two years, he’s struggled to make much of an impact in coverage and has had tackling issues with 35 misses during that timeframe, according to Pro Football Focus. That had to play a factor in the front office’s decision to use a second-round pick on Treydan Stukes, who could take over at free safety.
The four-year pro might be better in the box, but Las Vegas already has Jeremy Chinn at strong safety and fifth-round pick Dalton Johnson could fill the backup role. Plus, it doesn’t help that Johnson has greater future value as a rookie under contract for four years, while Pola-Mao is entering a contract year. If they do cut the 27-year-old, the Raiders will save $4.11 million of cap space while only taking on $750k in dead cap, per Over The Cap.
Adam Butler
Butler is another defender who has been a starter in Vegas over the last two years, but it feels like that says a lot more about the team’s lack of talent at defensive tackle than it does his skill set. The eight-year veteran has been a role player for the other six seasons of his career, and while he had a decent 2024 campaign, he regressed last season.
Granted, the interior of the Silver and Black’s defensive line is still weak to help boost Butler’s odds of making the team. However, the position group does have some young talent that the organization might want to keep around to develop, spending three draft picks (Tonka Hemingway, JJ Pegues and Brandon Cleveland) and signing a notable undrafted free agent (Gary Smith III) at the position during the last two offseasons. That’s not even counting expected starters Jonah Laulu and Thomas Booker IV, both of whom are 26 years old.
That being said, what could save Butler is that the Raiders would take on $6.33 million of dead cap hit with minimal savings this year and just under $1.1 million of dead money in 2027, per OTC. It’s just a matter of whether John Spytek would view that as a sunk cost to keep all of the young defensive tackles around.
Dont’e Thornton Jr.
Admittedly, including Thornton is stretching the definition of a “surprise” cut since many are expecting him to be on the chopping block heading into camp. But moving on from a fourth-round pick who was generating plenty of buzz at this time last year and was viewed as a high-ceiling prospect with his unique combination of size and speed would raise a few eyebrows. Barring off-the-field or work ethic issues, most clubs give those types of players at least a couple of years to develop before cutting bait.
However, Thornton is a questionable fit in Klint Kubiak’s offense, and Kubiak brought in three wideouts this offseason (Jalen Nailor, Dareke Young and Malik Benson) who fit his profile. Especially if Jack Bech is outplaying him, the Tennessee product could have a short tenure in Sin City. If that happens, the club would only take on about $260k in dead cap hit in each of the next three seasons, while the savings escalates from a little more than $1 million to just under $1.25 million, per OTC.
Michael Mayer
To be honest, Mayer seems like the most unlikely to get cut of the players mentioned here. The Raiders don’t have much depth at tight end behind him, so it would probably take a surprise emergence from Carter Runyon and/or Patrick Gurd for Mayer to be a surprise cut. Then again, fullback Connor Heyward has a background at tight end, getting reps at the position with the Pittsburgh Steelers and in college at Michigan State.
Heyward’s versatility opens the door for Kubiak to use the former Steeler/Spartan similarly to how Kyle Shanahan deployed Kyle Juszczyk in the San Francisco 49ers’ offense last year, if Kubiak doesn’t like what he’s seeing from Mayer. Also, it’d be remiss not to mention that the 2023 second-round pick hasn’t met expectations so far. Contractually, moving on from him would cost about $1.25 million and save about $1.7 million, per OTC.
Malcolm Koonce
If the coaching staff decides to move on from Koonce, it would make more sense to trade rather than cut him outright, even if it’s only for a seventh-round pick. According to OTC, the latter would mean the organization eats $10.5 million of his $11.01 million contract, while a trade splits that figure in half and saves $5.76 million of cap space.
Spytek gave Koonce a “prove-it” deal in the offseason, but that was before the Maxx Crosby deal fell through. The general manager also added Kwity Paye and Keyron Crawford during the spring, creating a crowded edge room. Since Crosby, Paye and Crawford are all on multi-year contracts, Koonce could be the odd man out. Granted, that’s assuming Crosby is still in the organization’s long-term plans…
