I think about the 2023 Texas Rangers a lot. (Wait, isn’t this daily question post supposed to be about the Marlins? Yes, bear with me.) Not because they won the World Series. (Did they win the World Series? I have no idea.) But because of this:
- The 2023 Rangers were, before the season, projected as an 82-win team, fourth in their division. Though their talent level changed over the course of the season, the swing was more like two wins (to an 84-win talent level).
- At the same time, these same Rangers finished second in MLB in position player fWAR and 20th in pitching fWAR, with a whopping 97ish WAR-wins. They did outhit their xwOBA by a bit, and benefited from an FIP lower than their xFIP by a bit, but nothing dramatic or even that notable.
- They finished with 90 wins.
So, it was kind of a weird double-whammy. They finished notably better than their talent level, but notably worse than their production. And usually, those two italicized things also line up, so it was kind of a mis-triangulation in a bunch of different directions slash along a bunch of different axes. Hence, that squad living rent-free in my head.
As of right now, the 2026 Miami Marlins are tied with the Phillies record-wise, both three games behind the Braves. The Fish and Phils hold the final two Wild Card spots in the NL, now up two games on the Cardinals.
The Marlins…
- Were projected, preseason, with a central estimate of 76 wins. Their talent level estimation has barely gone up over the course of the season (to around 77 wins).
- They are currently sixth in position player value and tenth in pitching value. Their current WAR-wins total is 50; the Marlins have 51 actual wins.
- They have the league’s second-biggest xwOBA outperformance (after the Rockies), but also the league’s second-lowest HR/FB on the pitching end (which is probably park-aided, but then see the xwOBA outperformance).
So, it’s not exactly the same as the 2023 Rangers. But you can see why I’m going there. Are the Marlins good? They have had incredible production to date, but they’re 21st in team xwOBA and 15th in team xFIP. That combination of average-to-bottom-third is in line with a high 70s-win team (i.e., their projection central estimate). Meanwhile, the Marlins are on pace for 89 wins. If they keep it up, it’ll be a wild ride.
But, all of that is just a bunch of information. The Marlins’ outperformance could cease and they could regress, or it could keep up and give the Braves, Phillies, and other NL contenders a headache. Or, they could actually start playing better and become more 2023 Rangers-esque.
Do you think they’ll pass the Phillies this season? What about the Braves? I don’t necessarily mean when all is said and done, just… can they keep their run up enough to do so, even temporarily? They’ve lost just eight times in the last five-and-a-half weeks, which is quite an April/May 2026 Braves heater.
