Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight sluggers Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres will go to war this weekend (Sat., June 27, 2026) inside National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan, for UFC Baku.
Times have been tough for Fiziev in recent years. A six-fight win streak fired him into title contention, but a pair of losses to Justin Gaethje and a knee injury suffered versus Mateusz Gamrot absolutely stalled his momentum. Since then, Fiziev has fought twice, turning away Ignacio Bahamondes before getting stopped by Mauricio Ruffy back in February.
Fortunately, he’ll have the Azerbaijani crowd behind him as he chases his first win of 2026.
Meanwhile, Torres is running a hot hand. Six fights into his UFC career, he’s scored five violent first-round stoppages, proving his destructive capabilities. However, his sole loss was a one-sided battering at the hands of Bahamondes. Was it an off-night for a future contender or is Torres’ firepower hiding some real issues? Tonight’s main event might help us find out.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Fiziev vs. Torres Betting Odds
- Rafael Fiziev victory: -114
- Rafael Fiziev via TKO/KO/DQ: +170
- Rafael Fiziev via submission: +1700
- Rafael Fiziev via decision: +600
- Manuel Torres victory: -106
- Manuel Torres via TKO/KO/DQ: +145
- Manuel Torres via submission: +1100
- Manuel Torres via decision: +1400
- Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
How Fiziev Wins
Rafael Fiziev is a highly experienced Muay Thai striker with some of the division’s most explosive kicks. He’s comfortable at every range, and his wrestling has really improved since the start of his UFC run. That said, Fiziev has flirted with a Featherweight move in the past, and he’s about to face one of the division’s tallest and strongest athletes.
That’s the dynamic at play in a nutshell. Fiziev is the more technical and composed fighter by considerable margin, yet he might just get sparked out by a huge hitter with a significant size advantage. The question then becomes how does Fiziev ensure that his skills matter more than Torres’ physicality?
The key is in settling down Torres. “El Loco” is like a snowball, quickly dangerous with just the least bit of momentum. If Fiziev is reactive early on and lets Torres swing big without consequence, his risk of getting run over skyrockets.
I’m not saying Fiziev should brawl with Torres right away, but he has to earn his respect early. Whether that happens with a ripping body kick, a heavy counter combination, or even a reactive takedown doesn’t really matter. Fiziev simply has to put a bit of fear into Torres’ heart early (or just cold him outright), otherwise he’s in for a rough night.
How Torres Wins
“El Loco” is an accurate moniker. The Mexican mauler is clearly a man who does not get paid by the hour, a sprinter who aims to erase his opponent quickly or collapse in the attempt. After 20 professional bouts, Torres has only seen the judges a single time in victory or defeat. All that said, Torres is not a man without craft. He has a great eye for openings and excellent finishing instincts, the kind of fighter that can snatch a finish out of thin air with a counter punch, offensive burst, or quick strangle.
Against Fiziev, Torres will want to start quickly before his opponent can really establish his distance. Ideally, Torres will quickly press without over-exposing himself to counter punches in the process. That was his downfall versus Bahamondes — who admittedly has the unique advantage of being a 6’3″ Lightweight — as Torres repeatedly charged without any kind of setup or subterfuge.
Opposite the 5’7″ Fiziev, why not close forward in a way that really threatens the shorter man? Torres could double up on his jab and look to wrap up collar ties, which would allow him to slam knees right away. If Fiziev tries to pull away from the clinch, he’d end up right at the end range of Torres’ whipping right hand. Clinch offense and big kicks are viable ways to bully a smaller foe — Torres doesn’t just have to chase with his right hand.
Fiziev vs. Torres Prediction
The odds have this bout as a pick ’em, and I agree.
It’s hard to know where both men are at nowadays. Fiziev has lost four of his last five, but they’re all high-level defeats in competitive scraps. Torres is smoking people, but he also got outclassed by the one fighter who could match his size. We can’t really compare the Fiziev vs. Bahamondes and Torres vs. Bahamondes bouts either, because “La Jaula” was flawless in victory and strangely muted in defeat.
He’s also about a foot taller than Fiziev, so the waters are thoroughly muddied.
Ultimately, I feel like I know Fiziev well enough. He’s a damn good Lightweight without the size to be a truly elite contender. I am less convinced that Torres is more than a fun flash in the pan. He seems likely to implode if this fight goes beyond the four minute mark, and I think Fiziev has the kickboxing experience to handle an explosive slugger with a limited time to win.
