Fantasy Baseball Luck and Skill Factors: Why these 5 batters are struggling (and if they can bounce back)
The theme of this week’s hitter skill and luck factors piece is struggling players based on their draft cost. Some hitters have been struggling due to injuries, luck and skill. Will these hitters be able to bounce back? Or should we be patient with them? The goal is to examine the why behind a hitter’s performance.
Wyatt Langford, OF, Rangers (92% Rostered)
A forearm injury caused Wyatt Langford to miss time this season. After going 22/22 with a .241 batting average, many fantasy managers were optimistic about Langford. He has been making more contact (80%), over four points above the 2025 numbers, though it’s similar to his career averages (78%). Since Langford is chasing (27.9%) and swinging (48.5%) more often, his walk rate dropped by over six points to 6.1% this season. It’s a small sample, but if he maintains a lower walk rate than expected, he would lose value in points and OBP formats, given his career-low .319 OBP, slightly below his career norm (.333).
Langford hasn’t been pulling the ball (38.8%) as often, dropping by nearly seven points compared to his career average. The groundball rate spiked by nearly four percentage points, with his flyball rate staying close within one point. That coincides with Langford’s pulled air rate dropping to 19% this season after 22.9% throughout his career. Furthermore, Langford’s 5.5% barrel rate per plate appearance has declined significantly compared to his career average (7.2%). It would bode well for Langford to start pulling the ball more into the air like usual.
Langford’s 14% stolen base opportunity rate took a slight hit compared to the career norm (17%). However, he has converted all of his five stolen base attempts this season after converting a high-end percentage in his career (83%). Langford maintains above-average speed (82nd percentile Sprint Speed) and outfield athleticism (81st percentile Outs Above Average).
The projections expect Langford to hit 15/15 as the floor, though 20/20 should be within the peak outcomes. I would be buying low on Langford.
Maikel Garcia, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Royals (87% Rostered)
After having a peak season with 16 home runs, 23 stolen bases and a .266 batting average in 2025, Maikel Garcia has been underperforming relative to expectations. Garcia had a 4.4% barrel rate per plate appearance last season, similar to 2026 (3.7%). That further aligns with Garcia’s 92.1 mph average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (No. 168), dipping by over one mph from 2025 (93.9 mph).
Garcia ranked 97th with a 101.3 mph Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) last season, similar to this year (100.4 mph, No. 108). Overall, he continues to show league-average power while pulling it into the air 16% of the time, nearly identical to last season. That indicates Garcia needs volume to compile 15-20 home runs. The rest of the season projections have Garcia with around 10 home runs.
If Garcia isn’t hitting as many home runs, we hope he runs often. Garcia has an 11% stolen base opportunity rate this season, down from a career average at 20%. Throughout Garcia’s career, he has converted 80% of his chances for steals. However, Garcia has been inefficient, with conversion rates of 71% in 2025 and 62% in 2026. He is still fast and athletic, with a 59th-percentile Sprint Speed and 94th-percentile Outs Above Average, so he should be able to convert more steals. However, the projection systems expect 17 stolen bases.
Fantasy managers who invested in Garcia didn’t expect 10 home runs and 17 steals. It could be fluky that Garcia’s stolen base opportunity rate is down. We sometimes see steals come in bunches. He has also been dealing with a hand injury, which caused him to miss a few games and eventually land on the injured list. Garcia has more value in season-long rotisserie leagues than head-to-head matchups, especially if he isn’t producing 10-15 home runs and 30+ stolen bases.
Be cautious when buying low if you’re expecting a repeat of 2025.
Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Cubs (92% Rostered)
We’re revisiting Nico Hoerner’s early-season success after I had him as a fade in the offseason. Through April, Hoerner had four home runs, seven steals and a .291 batting average. Since May, Hoerner has zero home runs, five steals and a .207 batting average. Hoerner’s .249 season-long BABIP has been significantly lower than his career norm (.301), aligning with his batting average being lower.
Hoerner’s profile has mostly been near identical to the career averages in plate discipline, power and batted-ball profile. The only notable change involves Hoerner’s overall swing rate (43.4%) and zone swing percentage (57.7%) have been 4-5 percentage points lower this season compared to his career norm. That could be noisy since it hasn’t impacted Hoerner’s contact and swinging-strike rates.
Hoerner averaged over 30 steals in the previous three seasons. He projects for over 25 this season. In his two peak seasons with over 30 stolen bases, he had a stolen base opportunity rate over 20%. However, Hoerner’s stolen base opportunity rate dipped to 19% last year and 16% this season, with a career average at 20%. It’s a minor change, so it’s probably fluky there in the stolen base department.
My concern with Hoerner before the season related to what if there was a batting average lull. If that’s the case, his fantasy value takes a massive hit as a hitter with speed and a lower batting average. Since Hoerner has run higher BABIPs before, most projection systems expect that to regress. It’s risky to expect a luck factor to regress favorably when most of the skills remain the same.
This looks like an unusually down season for Hoerner, so be cautious on buying low.
Taylor Ward, OF, Orioles (87% Rostered)
Since drafting this article, Taylor Ward hit two home runs over the past week. After a peak season for Ward, who changed teams, it might be hindsight to avoid him in drafts. This is such a weird profile for Ward without the production. Ward is making more contact (83.6%) with a wildly low 13.2% chase rate. Both would be career outliers, including a five point increase in contact rate and a seven point dip in chase rate. That coincides with Ward’s career-best walk rate (17.2%) and OBP (.389), making him at elite points and OBP asset.
Since Ward has been making more contact, he puts the ball in play more, with a .327 BABIP, around 30 points above his career norm. Further impacting Ward’s higher BABIP is his lower flyball rate (40.4%) this season after flyball rates at 45% or higher in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, Ward is pulling the ball less often (32.5%), down over six points below his career average. Unsurprisingly, his 11.8% pulled air rate is the lowest since 2020 after being at 16% or higher in five straight seasons.
That said, it makes sense to see Ward’s lower power numbers. Unfortunately, his 3.2% barrel rate per plate appearance has been dreadful, after 8.4% in 2024 and 2025. We can guess it relates to fewer batted balls pulled into the air this season. Ward had a 100.9 mph EV50 (No. 114) last season, dropping slightly to 99.1 mph (No. 166). There could be a park factor component, with the Angels home park ranking seventh and the Orioles’ home park at 15th in the three-year rolling averages Home Run Park Factors for right-handed hitters.
Most projection systems expect Ward to hit 15-18 home runs with five stolen bases and a batting average around .250. That isn’t what fantasy managers expected when drafting Ward. With several skill change differences this season, it should make us cautious about expecting Ward’s numbers to significantly improve. Thankfully, the Orioles continue to bat Ward leadoff, but maybe that shouldn’t surprise us with his high OBP this season.
This looks like a weird season for Ward, which is something to examine deeper during the offseason.
The biggest concern is the power disappearing for Ward. Keep tabs on whether he can start pulling the ball into the air more again.
Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays (53% Rostered)
It’s wild to look at Chandler Simpson’s minor-league player page because he stole 104 bases throughout the entire 2024 season. After stealing 44 bags, hitting zero home runs with a .295 batting average last season, Simpson was probably coveted for his steals and batting average, like a lite version of Hoerner. Simpson’s .297 BABIP is impacting his lower batting average (.265) this season, which could be partly explained by him hitting fewer line drives (19.1%) this season.
Like my argument for Hoerner being a concern, Simpson’s fantasy values tank if he doesn’t hit for a high batting average because it turns him into a one-category player instead of two. There’s zero power in Simpson’s bat, with zero barrels throughout his time in the majors and at Triple-A. He often pounds the ball into the ground (59.3%) while hitting an infield hit 9.3% throughout his career.
After a ridiculously high 45% stolen base opportunity rate last season, Simpson’s percentage fell to 33% this season. Unfortunately, Simpson hasn’t been converting his chances into steals often (70%), down from 78% last year. Most projection systems have him with 35-40 stolen bases, which is close to his rookie season.
Simpson has been sitting against a couple of left-handed starting pitchers since the beginning of June (started in 6 out of 8), making us wonder if he will end up as a strong-side platoon option. If that’s the case, Simpson’s value further dips if the plate appearances and volume decline.
This is the risk of investing in a 1-2 category contributor like Simpson.
