Last week we took a look at C.J. Stroud and a look at the hot seat. Obviously, that begs the next obvious question: who else on offense is on the hot seat? The Texans defense ranked first or second in almost every major defensive category. If it weren’t for them throwing in the towel in week 18, they would have been first in yards and point surrendered. So, obviously the defense is nowhere near the hot seat. So, that leaves the entire offense. The entire offense is under the control of one man: Nick Caley.
Caley was given a few marching orders coming into the 2025 season. He needed to keep C.J. Stroud upright. In order to do this, they wanted to run a more ball control and quick passing game to remove some pressure on the offensive line. The general idea was to take care of the football and let the defense win games. That worked well for the bulk of the 2025 regular season.
As you probably have figured out, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Statistics always tell a story, but the key is not overreaching. Everything looks different from 30,000 feet and a look at total season data is a 30,000 foot view. However, if we look at the key numbers: total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, turnovers, and sacks then we can judge whether Caley did a better job than his predecessor.
| 2024 | 2025 | |
| Total Yards | 5435 | 5559 |
| Passing Yards | 3526 | 3707 |
| Rushing Yards | 1909 | 1862 |
| Sacks | 54 | 31 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 12 |
| Points | 372 | 404 |
Every dedicated Texans fan knows what they saw week in and week out. The offense didn’t look pretty for much of the year. However, results are results. We have gone over this ground before, but it bears repeating as we get closer to the 2026 season. The Texans scored more points, gained more yards, turned over the ball fewer times, and surrendered fewer sacks. So, if you look at the mandate, Caley was better in all of the categories the Texans asked him to be better in.
The key question is whether this offense can take the next step. According to the official record, the Texans ranked either 13th or 14th overall as an offense in terms of points and yards. The ranks in all of the categories can be seen below. They speak for themselves and where this Texans offense was. It also shows where the team needs to go to make the next step
Total points: 13th
Total yards: 18th
Passing yards: 14th
Rushing yards: 22nd
Sacks Allowed: 10th
Turnovers: 2nd
When you want to win close defensive battles then limiting turnovers is the key. That is what the Texans were best at and what gets forgotten after their two playoff games. They were also a top ten offense in keeping Stroud upright and that was an important part of the process. Still, most people would agree that a team that wants to get to the AFC Championship game and the Super Bowl needs to be better than middle of the pack on offense.
One of the problems in June for every team is what I lovingly call “magical thinking.” Essentially, it is win fans, coaches, and executives look only at the positives and set aside the negatives. Fans should have hope. If they don’t then it is lousy to be a fan. There are any number of things we can look at that inspire some hope that things will be better.
We start with replacing Joe Mixon with David Montgomery. If Montgomery gains a yard or scores a single touchdown then he will give the Texans more than what Mixon gave them last season. They’ve added a number of linemen including their first round pick and two key free agents at guard and tackle respectively. It is also year two of the system. DeMeco Ryans has already said that the offense is ahead of where they were at this time last year. Some of that makes sense and is certainly plausible.
However, naysayers have their say too. Critics would point out that the Texans settled for an NFL record number of field goals in 2025. They would point out that the offense became a basket case inside the ten yard line. They would obviously point to the playoff games where the offense became turnover happy. They’d point to key games where the offense was unimaginative and ineffective. Certainly, there is hope that some of those issues will be resolved with Montgomery and some of the new linemen, but the unimaginative and inefficient parts point towards Caley.
It’s relatively easy to go from one of the worst offenses in football to an average offense. It is considerably more difficult to go from average to good. It is even harder to go from good to great. Fans can spin yarns about the Baltimore Ravens riding a defense to the Super Bowl. They can wax poetic about the 1985 Chicago Bears. The reason why we can list those examples is because there are so few of them. To win the Super Bowl you need a top ten offense and top ten defense. They have the defense. Nick Caley is on the hook for the offense.
