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The Milwaukee Brewers remain in front of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the race for baseball’s best record. Tuesday’s 6-4 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies left the Brewers at 98-59. The Dodgers entered their game against the San Diego Padres at 96-60, with six games remaining to the Brewers’ five. The gap stood at 1 1/2 games before the opener.
The head-to-head result makes that gap more significant. The Brewers won their season series against the Dodgers 4-3 and own the postseason seeding tiebreaker. If both finish with identical records, the Brewers take the National League’s No. 1 seed. The Dodgers must finish ahead outright.
Here are three calls about how the lead will change and where the race will end.
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The Dodgers will erase the gap before Friday
The boldest way to make this a race is also the clearest mathematically. If the Dodgers sweep the Padres and the Brewers split their remaining two games vs. the Phillies, both clubs enter Friday at 99-60. This is my first prediction.
That outcome would erase a lead Milwaukee has protected for weeks in the standings and reverse the pressure on the final weekend. Every inning would suddenly matter to both clubs, especially because a tie at the finish would still favor the Brewers.
A sweep against the Padres would be no routine assignment. San Diego arrived having won 13 of its past 14 games, and it still has Wild Card positioning at stake. The Dodgers, however, entered Tuesday on a four-game winning streak. Andy Pages and Roki Sasaki returned from the injured list, and Shohei Ohtani could be eligible to return Wednesday as he works back from left knee and right biceps injuries.
Los Angeles is using a bullpen game Tuesday, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto scheduled Wednesday and Tyler Glasnow expected Thursday. Those two starters provide a credible path to three wins, even if the opener requires several relievers. The Dodgers do not need Ohtani to carry them immediately. They need their pitching and offense to maintain the pace established without him.
Philadelphia has its own reason to compete with the Brewers. The Phillies are chasing a Wild Card berth and already took the series opener. Expecting them to win one of Wednesday or Thursday’s games is hardly a dismissal of the Brewers. It is the result that brings this race level for the final weekend.
Los Angeles will briefly move into first place Friday
The next prediction requires one more swing. The Dodgers open a three-game road series against the San Francisco Giants on Friday, while the Brewers return home to face the St. Louis Cardinals. I expect the Dodgers to win their opener and Milwaukee to lose. That would put the Dodgers at 100-60 and the Brewers at 99-61, giving the Dodgers the outright lead.
The matchup against San Francisco supports the Dodgers’ half of the call. The Giants entered Tuesday at 65-92 with a minus-81 run differential, and the Dodgers had just swept them at home. A road game carries different demands, but Los Angeles has the deeper lineup and a clear incentive to keep pressing.
The Brewers’ half is riskier. The club has already set a franchise wins record and have no reason to sacrifice their postseason pitching plans for one regular-season start. They limited Jacob Misiorowski to three innings Sunday to manage his workload. St. Louis can capitalize if the Brewers spread those innings across less established arms.
This prediction does not depend on Milwaukee collapsing. One Cardinals win, paired with another Dodgers victory, is enough to put the challenger in front for the first time this week.
The Brewers will win the No. 1 seed through the tiebreaker
An outright Los Angeles lead on Friday would not settle the race. I expect Milwaukee to win its final two games against the Cardinals while the Dodgers split their final two vs. the Giants. Both clubs would finish 101-61.
That finish gives the Brewers their first 100-win season and rewards a crucial result from August. Milwaukee took the season series 4-3, so a 101-win tie would deliver the No. 1 seed to the Brewers without an extra game. Los Angeles could win five of its last six and still fail to pass its rival.
The Dodgers’ path is real, but narrow. They must finish ahead rather than level, and the remaining schedules give both clubs chances to stumble. My call is that Los Angeles briefly takes control, Milwaukee answers, and a seven-game season series ultimately decides baseball’s best-record race.
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