Tennessee will kick off its 2026 football season Sept. 5 against Furman at Neyland Stadium. The Vols will open fall training camp on Aug. 5 in preparation for their upcoming campaign.
Ahead of the upcoming season, ESPN’s College Football Power Index was released. The Vols are projected to have a 7.3-4.7 record.
ESPN’s Matchup Predictor also projected win percentage chances for each Tennessee game this season. The Vols are projected to defeat Furman, Georgia Tech, Kennesaw State, Auburn, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
Tennessee has a 50.6% chance to win at South Carolina on Oct. 24, marking the Vols’ closest SEC game projection.
Below is Tennessee’s 2026 football schedule, along with game-by-game win percentage chances from ESPN’s Matchup Predictor.
2026 Tennessee football win percentage chances each game
| Date | Opponent | Win percentage chance |
| Sept. 5 | Furman (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 99.0% |
| Sept. 12 | Georgia Tech (Atlanta, Georgia) | 74.3% |
| Sept. 19 | Kennesaw State (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 96.2% |
| Sept. 26 | Texas (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 24.5% |
| Oct. 3 | Auburn (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 65.3% |
| Oct. 10 | Arkansas (Fayetteville, Arkansas) | 73.5% |
| Oct. 17 | Alabama (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 40.9% |
| Oct. 24 | South Carolina (Columbia, South Carolina) | 50.6% |
| Oct. 31 | Open date | |
| Nov. 7 | Kentucky (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 80.8% |
| Nov. 14 | Texas A&M (College Station, Texas) | 28.0% |
| Nov. 21 | LSU (Knoxville, Tennessee) | 42.1% |
| Nov. 28 | Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tennessee) | 62.4% |
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This article originally appeared on Vols Wire: 2026 Tennessee football win percentage chances each game
