10 “intrigued” graphs from ‘Bama vs. East Carolina

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Alabama vs. East Carolina 2026 - Gave Wave chart

Welcome back, folks

Roll Tide! In some ways, it was a long offseason coming off of an absolutely sour Rose Bowl. On the other hand, it never ceases to surprise me when one more Week 1 has already appeared! Summer is gone, football is here.

For anyone new here: the “Graphing” series is a football analytics column based on the SP+ system. Basically, we try to look beyond the scoreboard, the highlights, and box score results — there’s plenty of good writing already on those, results, personnel, etc. — and instead try to glean more insight as to “measured team performance” across all downs.

To filch from my own writeup at the beginning of last season (albeit under better Week 1 circumstances):

Most of you know the drill here, but feel free to drop in any comments if you have questions about the metrics. As a brief reminder, success rate (SR) — based on Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics system — is supposed to measure whether an individual play was successful, that is:

– A first down gains 50% of needed yardage

– A second down gains 70% of needed yardage

– A third or fourth down gains 100% of the needed yardage to get a first down or score

And Explosiveness Rate (XR), is the percentage of plays that gain 15 yards or more. You can also use the little drop-down on each of the chart embeds to see a brief explanation of metrics. Fancy stuff.

Now, onto the game

I mean, sure, I’m coming out of this game much happier than after that debacle against Florida State to open last season. (Though, per my article, it really was an odd game where the score wasn’t totally indicative of play by play performance!). With big wins like this, I have the privilege of analyzing a game that … doesn’t need all that much analysis:

Box Score – Alabama vs East Carolina

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Stats	Alabama	East Carolina
Points	48	10
Game Excitement	3.4	3.4
Total yards	487	162
Rush yards	227	2
Rush attempts	49	22
Yards per rush	4.6	0.1
Pass yards	260	160
Pass attempts	19-32	11-19
Yards per pass	8.1	8.4
1st downs	28	5
3rd down eff	8-15	0-9
4th down eff	1-1	0-0
Explosiveness	1.11	1.55
Turnovers	1	1
Tackles	21	37
Sacks	3	1
Penalties-Yds	6-29	7-61
Possession	38:53	21:07

In many ways, a blowout is a blowout: one team’s got most of the points and yards. Roll Tide! But it’s interesting that we get some real “road grader” vibes from these numbers, too: >200 rushing yards, lots of 1st downs, high time of possession, and low explosiveness (1.11). That speaks of a team just grinding it out and racking up points the ol’ fashioned way. Fine by me!

So let’s talk about #RTDB

Running the dang ball is an evergreen topic around these parts. Don’t mind that Heisman-winning Bama QB or the Heisman-winning WR in Bama’s recent past: this is a team and a fanbase that would prefer thank you very much to #RTDB. So let’s skip ahead to the good part.

Here’s a look at Alabama’s rushing success (FBS opponents only) from 2025:

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SR and XR by Play Type (each game)

Alabama – 2025 Season (14 games)

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The high water mark last season was that Vanderbilt game, with a 50% Rushing SR. Yep, we only hit a ~47% Rushing SR against UL Monroe early in the season, and the other results from 2025 were relative bummers.

But this 2026 season opener vs. East Carolina was a category change: the Tide’s 64% Rushing SR in this one is a huge improvement, more in line with our 2025 FCS cupcake game (vs. Eastern Illinois) than the FBS ones. And it’s a sight for sore eyes.

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SR and XR by play type

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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That’s more like it! And as an added bonus, Alabama’s rushing defense was absolutely suffocating, holding the Purple Pirates to a horrid 16% Rushing SR with zero explosive Rushes. Shades of the Tide teams of old, at least in this particular aspect.

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Top rushers

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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But, yes yes yes, of course you’re right: a lot of this rushing wasn’t the classic tailback flavor. New QB Keelon Russell was our leading rusher by attempts, and was by far the rushing yardage leader (86 yds was nearly double what Daniel Hill accrued). Some of it was a little nerve-wracking — wild 3rd down scrambles that result in solid hits on the new kid, anyone? — but the offense definitely has a tool at their disposal here with Keelon’s speed and escapability. Let’s just please use it wisely instead of wildly.

And the other rushing was, generally, very efficient! Surprise potential breakout RB Trae’shawn Brown had some impressive plays, but more times when the play didn’t work out for him (some not his fault). But other than that, the other “starters” all delivered 50% or greater Rushing SR’s.

And we’re at that point in the season when I — yes, your perfectly scientifically sound neutral observer :cough cough: — start realizing who my favorite Tide players are this year. And I’ll admit to a few developing patterns, including rooting for the “they’ve earned it” upperclassmen backs that Saban used to prize. I’m talking: T.J. Yeldon, Damien Harris, Brian Robinson, Jase McClellan, and even Jam Miller last season.

And, yep, despite some real promising talent showing among the young lads, I’m a Daniel Hill guy this year. And I feel rewarded this game, given he played the “RB1” role and put up an 89% rushing SR (8/9). Wow! Yeah, some of that was short-yardage and goal line stuff that we leaned on Hill for the most in this game, but those are the kinds of short yardage efficiency we would’ve loved to have last season.

(So, props to the rebuilt OL, at least on short yardage rushing in this one).

We also apparently have this new QB

In case you haven’t heard, this Keelon kid is also supposed to throw the pigskin well, too. So that’s an exciting prospect, though the results were a little more variable on that side of the ball:

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Top passers

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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Look, I give all the same caveats that others do for Keelon’s game here: he’s a young QB, it was his first start, he barely passed in live situations last season — it’s all fair!

But there was room for us to have a “truly impressive” passing debut, and I’d say we landed slightly shy of that.

A 27.6% passing XR is pretty dang good, I’ll say! 1-in-4 passes resulting in 15+ yard gains is nothing to turn your nose up at.
But, we didn’t see many successful passes otherwise: Keelon’s 41.4% Passing SR is respectable, but basically league average.
Hey, at least he was better than the ECU QB!

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SR by play type: Alabama

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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But, yes, in terms of efficiency, the passing game dragged way behind the running game. Things were looking up there in the 2nd quarter especially, but passing efficiency wavered in that 30-40% SR range for much of the game, and ended up cumulatively “slightly below Average” by the time Keelon was subbed out.

That’s notably different than the Rushing Success rates, soaring in the 65-72% SR range, which didn’t even dip much in garbage time.

(And, um, Austin Mack didn’t tally any successful passes either, though one did get caught for short yardage).

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Top receivers

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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And, of course, there were some fast young men catching those passes, though I feel like we saw a few surprises in this chart already:

Ryan Coleman-Williams (RCW) had some distressing drops early — please, don’t be a thing in 2026 — but ended up pulling in 4 explosive catches for a big receiver line in this game.
And then your next man up is Derek Meadows, a tall lad that we thought might not even see meaningful snaps in this first game! Maybe I’m overly swayed by an early fluke chart, but I think I’m a Meadows guy this year too. Big giraffe energy in that one.
Rico Scott. getting his due was nice to see too; we thought it’d be “Meadows vs. Rico,” but it might just be a splash of each most weeks.,
And in the negative surprises: I was curious to see so few passes to running backs, with just one each to Daniel Hill and E.J. Crowell. Heck, I’m pretty sure in 2025 we saw more receiving yardage than rushing from Daniel Hill. I wonder if it’s a philosophy shift with a refreshed OL, or just a more conservative game plan in this one.

Other odds and ends from the opener

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SR and XR by distance to go

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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The short distance stuff is functioning again (at least against ECU). This was an area of relative weakness last year, but there was solid >60% SR and even good explosiveness from these 13 short-distance attempts.

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SR, XR and play count by drive: East Carolina

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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And the Pirates stole one big scoring drive from ‘em, but otherwise the ‘Bama defense just smashed ‘em. This is truly “couldn’t get off the mat” territory, and it’s a welcome sight from our end of the stadium.

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Rush rate: Alabama

Alabama vs. East Carolina • Sep 5, 2026

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And we talked about the Rushing game already, but it was interesting seeing Grubb lean back into the pass after the Tide was up by a bunch. In the first half it looked clear that we had a rush-first game plan (#RTDB), but there were apparently some things that Grubb and the staff wanted to work on with Keelon and co., even after they didn’t really ‘need to.’

Whew. Another season opener in the books! I’ve gotta say, all due respect to the teams that start these seasons with big opponents — including some Tide teams of recent past — but it’s nice to ease into the season like this instead (especially with so many new faces on the field and sidelines).

And while some questions wait until stiffer competition to be fully answered, we know that we’ve got a competent QB, a promising outlook on rushing the ball, and a defense that is capable of evaporating an opposing offense … at least one of this caliber.

Time will also tell what kind of team this East Carolina squad is: with so much turnover from last season, the jury is still out on both the Purple folks and the Crimson ones in this game. Here’s to hoping that what we saw was more than a mirage.

📈 Check out all of the graphs from this game here.

Roll Tide.

idigest_admin 9 hours ago

0 59 minutes read

10 “intrigued” graphs from ‘Bama vs. East Carolina

Welcome back, folks

Now, onto the game

Box Score

So let’s talk about #RTDB

SR and XR by Play Type (each game)

SR and XR by play type

Top rushers

We also apparently have this new QB

Top passers

SR by play type: Alabama

Top receivers

Other odds and ends from the opener

SR and XR by distance to go

SR, XR and play count by drive: East Carolina

Rush rate: Alabama

idigest_admin

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Welcome back, folks

Now, onto the game

Box Score

So let’s talk about #RTDB

SR and XR by Play Type (each game)

SR and XR by play type

Top rushers

We also apparently have this new QB

Top passers

SR by play type: Alabama

Top receivers

Other odds and ends from the opener

SR and XR by distance to go

SR, XR and play count by drive: East Carolina

Rush rate: Alabama

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